196
FXUS66 KMTR 021807
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1007 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
- QUIET AND WARM CONTINUES TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH BAY.
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE OVER THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AND
AROUND HALF MOON BAY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO
IMPROVE BY 10 AM THIS MORNING AND GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, LOW TO MID 70S AROUND
THE BAY SHORELINE, SANTA CRUZ REGION, AND INLAND, AND 60S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES
ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE THINGS START TO CHANGE FOR
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AWAY FROM
THE COAST, NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING ALONG COASTAL AREAS WILL MIMIC YESTERDAY MORNING, BUT GIVE
WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY MID-MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 124 AM PDT SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ONCE AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS. THIS
DOES HINT TOWARDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
SIMPLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE EVENT. A COUPLE OF ITEMS TO NOTE NOW
THAT SOME DETAILS ARE MORE CLEAR. THUNDER CHANCES ARE INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY
AFFECT NORTH BAY COUNTIES AT THIS JUNCTURE, BUT STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO ACROSS THE
GREATER BAY AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS A SMALLER
CHANCE AND THE SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHTER IN GENERAL, BUT THESE
SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT ARE TYPICALLY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS
DESPITE THEIR LACKLUSTER APPEARANCE ON RADAR (LOOKUP WARM RAIN VS.
COLD RAIN PROCESSES IF YOUR CURIOUS). DESPITE THIS SYSTEM NOT
REALLY "STALLING", WE CAN SOMETIMES SEE THESE FEATURES ACT AS A
PRECURSOR FOR FLOODING IMPACTS ONCE THE HEAVIER RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THE NORTH BAY IS CURRENTLY TEETERING
ON THE EDGE OF THIS AXIS OF WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS TUESDAY, SO WE'LL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT WHEN ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCAL FLOODING IMPACTS. STILL LOOKING AT WIND BEING MORE OF A
PROBLEM ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS A WHOLE. 50-60 KT
FLOW AT 850 MB WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 40-50 MPH GUSTS
AS THE FRONT PASSES. WIND IMPACTS LESSEN AS YOU GO MOVE SOUTH.
STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN WIND ADVISORY DECISIONS, BUT
WEDNESDAY MORNING CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE A CANDIDATE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF SAN JOSE AND THROUGH THE NORTH BAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A FEW LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS PATCHES /IFR-LIFR/ ARE MIXING
OUT, OTHERWISE IT'S VFR. AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-
LIFR/ REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
FOG IN THE DIRECTION OF SFO, HOWEVER MOST RECENT SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS STRUGGLED WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST AND ULTIMATELY THE ADVECTION OF FOG BRINGING SFO TO
MINIMUMS. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED
WHICH MAY PIVOT FOG BACK TO THE TERMINAL, HOWEVER WITH INCREASING
MORNING SOLAR SURFACE HEATING THIS IS ALSO SHOWING A SIGN OF MIXING
OUT FOG. TAF INDICATES TEMPO 18Z-19Z IFR, THEN CLEARING /VFR/ FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. LOW STRATUS CEILING NEARS SFO BY 09Z MONDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER CURRENTLY THE TAF INDICATES ONGOING VFR LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING
WESTERLY 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...A PATCH OR TWO OF LINGERING FOG OTHERWISE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE APPROACH IS CLEARING
FASTER THAN THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SFO
TAF.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING THEN
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG /IFR/ REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG PATCHES LIKELY MIXING OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY, DIMINISHING
TO BECOME A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, RAINFALL, AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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