756
FXUS66 KMTR 022241
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
241 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
- QUIET AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG PACIFIC COAST
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHT, EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH WIDESPREAD ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST NOTABLE COOL DOWN WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH
BAY WITH LIGHT PREFRONTAL RAIN BEGINNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SONOMA COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER OREGON AND/OR FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH, RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TAKES PLACE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DRIVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWARD. ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE WILL BE A LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE 40-50 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE REGIONS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, A WIND
ADVISORY IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BAY AREA, AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE WE COULD
SEE BETWEEN 1.50"-2.50" IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH BAY AND 0.75"-2.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (HIGHEST
IN PLACES SUCH AS CLOVERDALE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 0.50"-
1.00" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF SAN
MATEO AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT
BETWEEN 0.25"-0.75". AS ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD AND INLAND, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.10"-0.50" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY
AND ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS SAID, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE MINOR
TO MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH FLOOD PRON AREAS AT GREATEST
RISK. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH. BY NEXT WEEKEND, CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A FEW LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS PATCHES /IFR-LIFR/ ARE MIXING
OUT, OTHERWISE IT'S VFR. AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG /IFR-
LIFR/ REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, MIXING OUT BY LATE
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES TO TRANSPORT
FOG IN THE DIRECTION OF SFO, HOWEVER MOST RECENT SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS STRUGGLED WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
FORECAST AND ULTIMATELY THE ADVECTION OF FOG BRINGING SFO TO
MINIMUMS. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION IS STILL ANTICIPATED
WHICH MAY PIVOT FOG BACK TO THE TERMINAL, HOWEVER WITH INCREASING
MORNING SOLAR SURFACE HEATING THIS IS ALSO SHOWING A SIGN OF MIXING
OUT FOG. TAF INDICATES TEMPO 18Z-19Z IFR, THEN CLEARING /VFR/ FOR
THE REST OF TODAY. LOW STRATUS CEILING NEARS SFO BY 09Z MONDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER CURRENTLY THE TAF INDICATES ONGOING VFR LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND BECOMING
WESTERLY 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...A PATCH OR TWO OF LINGERING FOG OTHERWISE
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE APPROACH IS CLEARING
FASTER THAN THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SFO
TAF.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING THEN
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG /IFR/ REDEVELOP TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
STRATUS AND FOG PATCHES LIKELY MIXING OUT BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY, DIMINISHING
TO BECOME A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, RAINFALL, AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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