094
FXUS66 KMTR 022328
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
328 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
- QUIET AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS
ALONG PACIFIC COAST
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHT, EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH WIDESPREAD ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST NOTABLE COOL DOWN WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH
BAY WITH LIGHT PREFRONTAL RAIN BEGINNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SONOMA COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER OREGON AND/OR FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH, RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TAKES PLACE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DRIVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWARD. ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE WILL BE A LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE 40-50 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE REGIONS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, A WIND
ADVISORY IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BAY AREA, AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE WE COULD
SEE BETWEEN 1.50"-2.50" IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH BAY AND 0.75"-2.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (HIGHEST
IN PLACES SUCH AS CLOVERDALE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 0.50"-
1.00" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF SAN
MATEO AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT
BETWEEN 0.25"-0.75". AS ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD AND INLAND, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.10"-0.50" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY
AND ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS SAID, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE MINOR
TO MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH FLOOD PRON AREAS AT GREATEST
RISK. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH. BY NEXT WEEKEND, CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 327 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LINGERING
STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BIG SUR COAST AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTRAL COAST. GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR WILL
INTRUDE INTO THE LOWER LAYERS FROM A BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER, BUT MOST STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT SHOULD BE RADIATIVE IN NATURE. OUTSIDE OF MONTEREY BAY,
PRIME PERIOD FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. GENTLE
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO... MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SELECT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE (LESS
THAN 10% PROBABILITY) FOR RADIATIVE FOG OR STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRATUS THROUGH THE
GOLDEN GATE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST BAY TERMINALS. ANY
STRATUS THAT DOES DEVELOP MIXES OUT LATE MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, TURNING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE RESUMING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZES
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIFR-IFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATUS MIXES OUT LATE MONDAY MORNING
AS THE ONSHORE WINDS RESUME.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL DIMINISH TO BECOME A
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE TOMORROW. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE
GUSTS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, RAINFALL, AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...CANEPA
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