094
FXUS66 KMTR 030517
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
917 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG PACIFIC COAST
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH BAY
- POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, 40-50 MPH ACROSS BAY AREA AND NORTH BAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 825 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COASTAL STRATUS CONFINED
TO THE BIG SUR COAST SOUTH OF PT SUR. IT WAS AN IDEAL EARLY
NOVEMBER SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH COMFORTABLE HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWER 80S MOST AREAS WITH SOME 60S AT THE BEACHES.
THE LOCAL SFO-SAC GRADIENT WAS NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE TODAY
BUT HAS TURNED BACK TO 0.4 MB ONSHORE WITH SOME NW WINDS BEING
REPORTED ON THE RUNWAYS OF SFO. SOME SHALLOW COASTAL STRATUS AND
FOG MAY START TO REFORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT OVERNIGHT FOR MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IMPACTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER FOR ONE MORE
DAY ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL START A COOLING TREND WITH THE RETURN OF
ONSHORE BREEZES BUT DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO START THE
WORK/SCHOOL WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WITH SOME FAR NORTH BAY LIGHT RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. INITIAL RAIN WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE MENDOCINO COUNTY LINE IN FAR NW SONOMA COUNTY.
00Z NAM TRENDS SUGGEST THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING. KEY MESSAGING AND QPF MENTIONED
BELOW STILL LOOK GOOD. MAIN MESSAGE AFTER LOOKING AT 18 AND 00Z
NAM IS TO EXPECT IMPACTS FOR THE WEDS MORNING COMMUTE FOR NEARLY
ALL OF THE BAY AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS FOR THE NORTH BAY.
WIND IMPACTS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH WIND ADVISORIES
LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH BAY COAST AND HILLS. 925 MB
WINDS ON THE NAM ARE SHOWING 55KT SUSTAINED WINDS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDS MORNING.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE QUIET WEATHER ON MONDAY TO MAKE SOME EARLY
SEASON STORM PREPARATIONS AROUND YOUR PROPERTY. CHECK STORM
DRAINS, GUTTERS AND SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS. EXPECT THE WEDS MORNING
COMMUTE TO BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED WITH WET ROADS, PONDING OF WATER
AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TONIGHT, EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG TO RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS AND THE NORTH BAY WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
FOR MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH WIDESPREAD ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST NOTABLE COOL DOWN WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH BELOW AVERAGE NEAR THE COAST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 239 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
BY TUESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE NORTH
BAY WITH LIGHT PREFRONTAL RAIN BEGINNING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SONOMA COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
INLAND OVER OREGON AND/OR FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH, RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE COAST OF THE
NORTH BAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING TAKES PLACE.
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN DRIVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTH BAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FARTHER
SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWARD. ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST, THERE WILL BE A LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE 40-50 MPH
SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE REGIONS HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, A WIND
ADVISORY IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, BAY AREA, AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE WE COULD
SEE BETWEEN 1.50"-2.50" IN THE COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE NORTH BAY AND 0.75"-2.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (HIGHEST
IN PLACES SUCH AS CLOVERDALE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 0.50"-
1.00" IN THE CITY OF SAN FRANCISCO AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF SAN
MATEO AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT
BETWEEN 0.25"-0.75". AS ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD AND INLAND, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.10"-0.50" CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY
AND ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS SAID, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE MINOR
TO MODERATE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WITH FLOOD PRON AREAS AT GREATEST
RISK. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE EXITING
TROUGH. BY NEXT WEEKEND, CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 917 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LINGERING
STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BIG SUR COAST. WINDS ARE DECREASING AND
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
CEILING FORECASTS TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL INTRUDE INTO THE LOWER
LAYERS FROM A BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE COAST NEAR THE OREGON-
CALIFORNIA BORDER, BUT MOST STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT SHOULD BE
RADIATIVE IN NATURE. PRIME PERIOD FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE STRATUS DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE.
GENTLE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH COASTAL STRATUS RETURNING IN THE EVENING HOURS. SOME RISK OF
GENERALLY MVFR-IFR STRATUS IN THE NORTH BAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
VICINITY OF SFO... MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SELECT HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A CHANCE (10-
20% PROBABILITY) FOR RADIATIVE FOG OR STRATUS AT THE TERMINAL EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRATUS THROUGH THE GOLDEN
GATE WITH DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EAST BAY TERMINALS. SOME MODELS
INDICATE THAT STRATUS FLOW ACROSS THE GOLDEN GATE IS POSSIBLE, WHICH
WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST AT THE TERMINAL. ANY STRATUS THAT DOES
DEVELOP MIXES OUT LATE MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHWEST
BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE RESUMING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR AT PRESENT WITH LIFR-IFR STRATUS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING; LIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRATUS MIXES OUT
LATE MONDAY MORNING AS BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS RESUME.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 917 PM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH BREEZES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING MODERATE NORTHWEST BREEZES ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GALE
FORCE GUSTS, ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, RAINFALL, AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 347 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK FOR
SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF UP TO 20 FEET
TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH TOMORROW. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING BEACHES.
REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND
JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN
THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR
BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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