123
FXUS66 KMTR 031205
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
405 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
- PREPARATIONS FOR UPCOMING STORM SHOULD BE PRIORITIZED FOR TODAY
IN NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA. AREAS SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA STILL
HAVE TIME TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE NORTH
BAY.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ
MTNS. GUSTY WIND 35-45 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 55 MPH
GUSTS ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ANOTHER MORNING OF MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED PATCHES
OF FOG ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL TODAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW IS REINFORCED AND WE START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE THE MARINE LAYER DEEPEN
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED
INTO THE REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1224 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
TUESDAY WILL BE OUR TRANSITION DAY INTO IMPACTFUL WEATHER. A
POTENT EARLY SEASON SYSTEM WILL BE DIGGING ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION. LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN REACHES OF NAPA AND SONOMA COUNTIES. THESE
SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE THE RESULT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
TERRAIN AND WILL NOT CONTAIN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN THAT WE'RE
EXPECTING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OUT OF THESE EARLY SHOWERS WILL BE
IMPORTANT FOR THE REST OF THE EVENT SINCE THEY MAY INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOCAL FLOODING ONCE THE HEAVIER RAINFALL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THESE EARLY, PREFRONTAL SHOWERS SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WHERE THIS AXIS OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SETS UP IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. BY LATE TUESDAY, THE
COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND WIND WITH IT. WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT TUESDAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTH BAY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, AND THE
REST OF THE BAY AREA BY SUNRISE.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY BENEFICIAL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE NORTH BAY, ESPECIALLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH WARM SECTOR RAIN WE SEE ON TUESDAY. A SPREAD
OF 1-2" FOR THE NORTH BAY, ISOLATED UP TO 2.5" IN THE NORTHERN
SONOMA COASTAL RANGE. THE REST OF THE BAY AREA WILL LIKELY END UP
MORE IN THE 0.50-1.0" RANGE, AND 0.25-0.50" FOR THE SANTA CLARA
VALLEY AND CENTRAL COAST.
REGARDING WIND...WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH BAY,
EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM
TUESDAY TO 4 PM WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST, SO WE'RE JUST CONSOLIDATING OUR CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AT
THIS POINT. OVERALL LOOKING AT GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH ACROSS THESE
AREAS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SERVES AS A GOOD REMINDER AND NOW
IS A GOOD TIME TO CLEAN UP ANY LOOSE TREE BRANCHES AND OTHER
DEBRIS THAT MAY BE TOSSED AROUND BY THE WIND. BE MINDFUL FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE AND HOME/PERSONAL SAFETY IF YOU LIVE IN OR TRAVEL
THROUGH TREED AREAS. IT'S NEVER TO EARLY IN THE SEASON TO BE
VIGILANT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 402 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR-VFR AT THE TERMINALS WITH PATCHY LIFR
STRATUS AND FOG BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION AND
UNFORTUNATELY BEGINNING TO RAPIDLY EXPAND. APC, HAF, MRY, SNS, AND
STS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL LIFR THROUGH MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN LVK, OAK, AND SFO REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE
MORNING. AN ISOLATED PATCH OF STRATUS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF SJC
WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
TERMINAL.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH WESTERLY FLOW. IFR/LIFR STRATUS
IS ENCROACHING THE TERMINAL FROM THE NORTH/WEST, BUT DUE TO THE
SHALLOW NATURE IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SNEAK THROUGH THE SAN BRUNO
GAP. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT VFR WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BACK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY LIFR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MRY
AND LIFR WITH FOG AND CALM CONDITIONS AT SNS. MRY IS EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO BECOME FOGGY AS WELL WITH THE TERMINALS ABLE TO MIX
OUT THE THIN CLOUD LAYER BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL TURN INTO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE TO
GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD
GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH ISOLATED
STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME VERY ROUGH
FOR THE INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 402 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES
OF UP TO 20 FEET TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN
OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...SARMENT
MARINE...SARMENT
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