802
FXUS66 KMTR 032137
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
137 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
- PREPARATIONS FOR UPCOMING STORM SHOULD BE PRIORITIZED FOR TODAY
IN NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA. AREAS SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA STILL
HAVE TIME ON TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE NORTH BAY.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ
MTNS. GUSTY WIND 35-45 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 55 MPH
GUSTS ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION, YET UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AHEAD OF
OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR (APPROACHING 80 DEGREES F IN THE WARMEST INLAND SPOTS
ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST). NEAR THE COAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. CLOUD COVER WILL RETREAT TO THE
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE LINGERING OVER THE NORTH BAY.
THIS WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY
BRINGS RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY. HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OUT OF THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH REGARDS TO WHETHER OR NOT
WE EXPERIENCE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION.
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN WINDS ARE REALLY FORECAST TO PICK UP IN
STRENGTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 11 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 PM
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE THE
VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH BAY
COASTAL AREAS AND RIDGETOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE REGION'S HIGHER
PEAKS.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM
SECTOR RAIN FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE WE COULD SEE BETWEEN 1.50"-2.50" IN THE
COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY AND 0.75"-
2.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (HIGHEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
CLOVERDALE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 0.50"-1.00" IN THE CITY OF
SAN FRANCISCO AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF SAN MATEO AND THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25"-0.75". AS
ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD AND INLAND, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10"-0.50" CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.
THERE IS ALSO ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH BAY (EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON), WITH LESS THAN 10% AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA.
ALL THIS SAID, THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE WINDY AND
WET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA! SO BE SURE TO
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NORTH BAY IS WHERE WE MAY SEE
RAINFALL OFF AND ON AT TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1057 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
PESKY STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS THE COAST AND IN SOME VALLEYS,
LEAVING TAF SITES WITH A MIX OF LIFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. MODELS
WERE STRUGGLING THIS MORNING AS MANY DIDN'T IDENTIFY THE EXTENT OF
THE LOW CLOUD AND VISIBILITY, MAKING THE FORECAST TRICKY. AS A
RESULT, MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE GFSLAMP, MOS, AND
TIMING TOOL. MOST AREAS SHOULD CLEAR BY 21Z WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH THE SIGNAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS RETURNING LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ALL TERMINALS BUT KLVK AND KSJC. THE QUESTION REMAINS, WILL IT BE
AS WIDESPREAD WITH ANOTHER SUNRISE SURPRISE OF LIFR CONDITIONS OR
VARY BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM ON THE FORECAST.
VICINITY OF SFO...SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AROUND KSFO THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME STRATUS LINGERING TO OUR WEST NEAR THE SAN BRUNO
GAP. VFR CIGS WITH SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD, SAY FEW005 OR SO, WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS ALL
SHOW MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO
GO WITH MVFR CONDITIONS GIVEN THE SET UP IS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING.
ONCE SKIES CLEAR, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CHANCES FOR RAIN
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 6Z AT THIS TIME.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MONTEREY BAY REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH
STRATUS, WITH A SMALL EDDIES OBSERVED IN CLOUDS. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH MODELS SHOWING
CLEARING AFTER 21Z. CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS MEDIUM TO LOW GIVEN HOW
SATELLITE LOOKS AND HOW POORLY THE MODELS HANDLED THIS MORNING.
SHOULD WE CLEAR "ON TIME", VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL 6Z
OR SO. STRATUS SHOULD MAKE A RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES WITH MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL TURN INTO WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY WITH NEAR-GALE FORCE TO GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH ISOLATED STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME VERY ROUGH FOR THE
INNER WATERS AND OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 402 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES
OF UP TO 20 FEET TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN
OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CAZ006-505-509-
529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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