317
FXUS66 KMTR 032323
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
323 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
- PREPARATIONS FOR UPCOMING STORM SHOULD BE PRIORITIZED FOR TODAY
IN NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA. AREAS SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA STILL
HAVE TIME ON TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE NORTH BAY.
- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SF PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ
MTNS. GUSTY WIND 35-45 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 55 MPH
GUSTS ALONG FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION, YET UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW HAS RETURNED AHEAD OF
OUR APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR (APPROACHING 80 DEGREES F IN THE WARMEST INLAND SPOTS
ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST). NEAR THE COAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENS. CLOUD COVER WILL RETREAT TO THE
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST WHILE LINGERING OVER THE NORTH BAY.
THIS WILL BE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY
BRINGS RAIN TO FAR NORTHERN SONOMA AND NAPA COUNTIES EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS RAIN WILL BE MOSTLY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY. HOW MUCH RAIN WE SEE OUT OF THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH REGARDS TO WHETHER OR NOT
WE EXPERIENCE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THIS REGION.
TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 134 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN WINDS ARE REALLY FORECAST TO PICK UP IN
STRENGTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS SUCH,
WE HAVE A WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM 11 PM TUESDAY THROUGH 4 PM
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SAN
FRANCISCO PENINSULA, AND SANTA CRUZ MTNS. WE ARE EXPECTING
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE THE
VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH BAY
COASTAL AREAS AND RIDGETOPS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE REGION'S HIGHER
PEAKS.
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK MOSTLY BENEFICIAL OUTSIDE OF LOCALIZED NUISANCE
FLOODING ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, ESPECIALLY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WARM
SECTOR RAIN FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE WE COULD SEE BETWEEN 1.50"-2.50" IN THE
COASTAL RANGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH BAY AND 0.75"-
2.00" IN THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS (HIGHEST IN PLACES SUCH AS
CLOVERDALE) BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 0.50"-1.00" IN THE CITY OF
SAN FRANCISCO AND THE COASTAL RANGES OF SAN MATEO AND THE SANTA CRUZ
MOUNTAINS. THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE CAN EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25"-0.75". AS
ONE HEADS SOUTHWARD AND INLAND, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10"-0.50" CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY AND ACROSS MONTEREY AND SAN
BENITO COUNTIES.
THERE IS ALSO ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MAIN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH BAY (EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON), WITH LESS THAN 10% AS ONE MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAY AREA.
ALL THIS SAID, THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE WINDY AND
WET, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA! SO BE SURE TO
ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION IF TRAVELING.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NORTH BAY IS WHERE WE MAY SEE
RAINFALL OFF AND ON AT TIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE IN THE
EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 323 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
LINGERING COASTAL STRATUS HOVERS AROUND THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY
AND THE COAST SOUTH OF POINT SUR, BOTH SUPPORTED BY SMALL SCALE
EDDIES OFFSHORE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO STREAMING INTO THE SONOMA
COASTAL RANGES TO THE NORTHWEST OF STS. OTHERWISE, THE REGION
REMAINS GENERALLY VFR. BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING
FORECASTS, AS GENERALLY IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL RETURN TO THE COASTAL
AREAS, WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR AND MID- TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
POSSIBLE FROM PREFRONTAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND PERHAPS DOWN
TO SFO AND OAK. THIS IS A COMPLEX INTERACTION AS THE HIGH CLOUDS
COULD INTERFERE WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO FOG OR LOW STRATUS, DECREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT AND DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. CURRENT BEST FORECAST IS FOR THE STRATUS TO RETREAT TO
THE COASTAL REGIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY EXPECTED AFTER THE
END OF THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO... VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. COASTAL STRATUS
AND PREFRONTAL CLOUDS COMBINE TO GIVE THE TERMINAL A MODERATE
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY PART OF TUESDAY MORNING,
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. NORTHWEST BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY, TURNING LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEPICT CHANCES FOR MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE
TUESDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. MVFR-IFR STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIME OF ARRIVAL, GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT MRY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT WINDS AT SNS DEVELOP
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM PST MON NOV 3 2025
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES FOR AREAS NORTH OF POINT PINOS,
WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES SOUTH OF THERE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS FULLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY AND WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY, NEAR- GALE FORCE TO GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS
TIME WITH ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
MOST WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO BECOME VERY ROUGH FOR THE INNER
WATERS AND OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY WILL TURN INTO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 402 AM PST MON NOV 3 2025
A LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES, RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES
OF UP TO 20 FEET TO PACIFIC COAST BEACHES TODAY. HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
FACING BEACHES. REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS. SWIMMERS
SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE ROCKS, REMAIN
OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS, AND NEVER
TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 PM PST SATURDAY
FOR CAZ006-506-508-529-530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM TUESDAY TO 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-
PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...KR
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