305
FXUS66 KMTR 050450
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
850 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 257 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
- WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH BAY, EAST BAY, SF BAY, AND SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN THE NORTH BAY, BUT
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT WITH THE
MAIN HAZARDS BEING POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND ENHANCED
OUTFLOW WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 804 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
FORECAST ON TRACK SO FAR THIS EVENING. FAINT HINTS AT EARLY
RAINFALL SHOWING UP ON RADAR OFFSHORE OF THE MENDOCINO COAST.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG THE
NORCAL COAST WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT LAGGING BEHIND. THE WARM
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
PROMOTING LIGHT RAIN IN THE NORTH BAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS
THE BAY AREA AND WE'RE SEEING GUSTS IN THE 50-65 MPH RANGE
CURRENTLY OCCURRING OFF THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF EUREKA. WINDS OF
SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH BAY COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.
BEHRINGER
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 146 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON - LOTS OF TALK ABOUT THE UPCOMING IMPACTFUL
WEATHER, BUT TODAY SO FAR HAS TURNED TO TO BE PRETTY NICE. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN OVER THE NORTH BAY AS WE SPEAK. TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN SEASONABLY MILD AND IN THE 60S TO 70S.
THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL FOCUS OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS
QUICKLY SHIFTS WEST AND NORTHWEST. IMPRESSIVE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AS CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES WITH A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LATEST OPC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 979MB LOW
DEEPENING NEAR 45N 145W TRACKING TOWARD THE PACNW. THE
CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING FUELED BY A SOLID 130+KT JET.
WE'LL BREAK THIS SECTION INTO THE MAIN THREE IMPACTS.
WIND: SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE TO STACK UP NEAR AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE LINGERING
OVER CA. AS RESULT, SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TIGHTENING WITH
GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING. ALREADY SEEING SOME SOLID GUSTS OVER 50
MPH ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WITH ONE GUST OF 68 MPH NEAR CAPE
MENDOCINO. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE STRONGER WINDS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH BAY COAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES MORE SOUTH AND EAST. BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY THE HIGHEST WIND SWATH WILL BE AIMED RIGHT AT THE
GOLDEN GATE AND BAY AREA. HI-RES GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS WELL,
INCLUDING OUR IN-HOUSE WRF MODEL. TO ADD SOME EXTRA JUICE TO THE
WIND, A CRANKING 925MB JET DEVELOPS OFF THE FAR NORCAL COAST AND
SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. ONCE THE STRONGEST WIND SWATCH GETS SOUTH
OF THE GOLDEN GATE IT BEGINS TO LOSE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THAT
DOESN'T MEAN STRONG WINDS WON'T IMPACT SAN MATEO TO CENTRAL COAST,
JUST THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUS OVER THE NORTH BAY
COAST AND GOLDEN GATE REGION. GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH ARE STILL IN PLAY
WITH HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINING FOR NORTH BAY COAST AND MARIN
HEADLANDS. OUTSIDE OF HIGH WIND WARNING, WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR N AND E BAY, SAN MATEO COAST, AND SANTA CRUZ MTS. TWO OTHER
WIND THINGS TO NOTE: EAST BAY PASSES WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA, BUT IT'S MORE ISOLATED AND NOT WIDESPREAD
FOR THE ENTIRE E BAY. SANTA CRUZ AND MONTEREY COAST WILL BE WINDY
AS WELL, BUT MUCH SMALLER TIMESCALE SO DIDN'T INCLUDE THEM IN ANY
WIND PRODUCTS. WINDS FINALLY EASE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
THE FIRST REAL WIND TEST OF THE SEASON.
RAIN: THE NORTH BAY WAS TEASED WITH A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT THEY HAVE NOW SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT WAS WELL ADVERTISED AS THESE SCOUT SHOWERS WERE
TIDE CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT/SECTOR. THIS WARM SECTOR REGION
WILL SHIFT NORTH AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS. THE BAY AREA HAS TO SIT
TIGHT AND WAIT FOR BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT. LATEST TIMING WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAIN WILL
INITIALLY MOVE INTO THE N BAY (LATE TONIGHT) BEFORE SLIDING SOUTH
TO THE BAY AREA (3-5 AM) AND FINALLY THE CENTRAL COAST MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY. THIS FROPA LOOKS TO BE RATHER DYNAMIC WITH A 3-6 HOUR
WINDOW OF HIGHER RAIN RATE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE TIMING LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY AM COMMUTE FOR THE BAY AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM THE CNRFC AND NATIONAL WATER CENTER SHOW A RISE IN
CREEKS/STREAMS BUT NO MAJOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THAT BEING
SAID, HIGHER RAIN RATES ON URBAN AREAS AND FLASHIER CREEKS/STREAM
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WE'LL NEED TO WATCH THE PICKETT BURN AREA CLOSELY AS THERE IS A
40-50% CHC OF RAIN RATE THRESHOLDS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO BE MET.
RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVE TRENDED DOWN
A TENTH OR TWO - LIKELY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD PUSH THIS
EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL STILL BE HIGHEST N BAY AND
TERRAIN FAVORED LOCATIONS (BIG SUR MTS/SANTA CRUZ MTS) WITH 1-2.5"
LOCALLY 3+", BAY AREA/S BAY 0.25-0.5", INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH OR TWO. GIVE THE S TO SW FLOW RAIN
SHADOWING WILL BE A THING OVER THE SANTA CLARA AND SALINAS
VALLEYS.
THUNDERSTORMS: STILL SEEING SOME CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS WITH THE
FROPA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEE NO
REASON TO TAKE THEM OUT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM
REDWOOD NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ABOUT
15-25% CHANCE WITH MAIN IMPACTS BEING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 245 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE REGION WITH
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LINGERING. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, CLEAR SKIES,
AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG.
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE EXTENDED LEADING
TO ADDITIONAL BRUSHES WITH PRECIP, BUT NO BIG STORM. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, BUT MAINLY NORTH OF SAN JOSE. A BRIEF
BREAK AND THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 824 PM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
SLIGHT DELAY IN THE ONSET OF WINDS THIS EVENING, BUT CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORCAL
COAST ON ITS WAY SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE ONSET TIME OF
WINDS, BUT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FCST WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 12-16Z.
GUSTY S/SW WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT
DECREASING IN SPEED. FOR TERMINALS GENERALLY NORTH OF KSQL, HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF +RA BETWEEN 13-15Z WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
OF A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAIN BAND. +RA COMES TO AN END BY 17-18Z
WHERE VCSH AND MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING
VICINITY OF SFO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD, GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH TONIGHT. VERY GUSTY
35-45 KTS BY 12-15Z AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THRU. +RA WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY THE 17Z HOUR.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, MOSTLY DRY WITH VCSH AND LINGERING
MVFR/IFR CIGS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. PERHAPS THE BIGGEST IMPACT TO MONTEREY BAY
TERMINALS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25-30 KTS. RAIN IS
STILL ANTICIPATED, BUT LOW CHANCE OF BEING HEAVY. SHRA IS THE MORE
LIKELY MODE OF PRECIP. RAIN TO BEGIN IMPACTING TERMINAL BY THE
18Z HOUR LASTING THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1021 AM PST TUE NOV 4 2025
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ARRIVES. SOUTHERLY, NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD
GALE TO SEVERE GALE FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM
POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT. MODERATE SEAS BUILD, BECOMING ROUGH
TO VERY ROUGH, TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 10 TO 16 FEET EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS ABATE AND CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY
THIS WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ006-503-504-506-
508>510-512-515.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ502-505.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO
PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO
PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO
PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES
0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT
0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...KENNEDY
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