086
FXUS66 KMTR 051924
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1124 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1240 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
-WIND, RAIN, AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST.
-PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 MPH IN THE VALLEYS WITH ISOLATED
65 TO 70 MPH ALONG THE NORTH BAY PACIFIC COAST AND HIGHER
TERRAIN.
-HAZARDOUS BOATING, BEACH, AND COASTAL CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH
WINDS, SURF AND TIDALLY INFLUENCED FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 945 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
SO FAR THIS EARLY SEASON SYSTEM IS PLAYING OUT AS ADVERTISED -
MORE OF A WIND STORM THAN A PRECIP STORM. THE HYPER FOCUSED SWATH
OF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
NORTH BAY COAST, ESPECIALLY THE MARIN HEADLANDS. HERE ARE A FEW OF
THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SINCE MIDNIGHT: 82 MPH HILLS ABOVE
WOODACRE, 76 MPH NE OF TACALOMA, 73 MPH PINE MT, AND MANY OTHER
SITES AROUND THE REGION GUSTING 40-60 MPH. WILL KEEP HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES AS FOR NOW AS THE HIGH WIND WARNING
IS STILL ON THE EDGE OF VERIFYING THIS MORNING. THE NORTH BAY
COAST WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A WIND ADVISORY LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND IMPACTS HAVE BEEN BLOWN OVER TRAILERS ON THE ROAD,
DOWN TREES/POWER LINES, AND BROKEN BRANCHES.
AS FOR RAIN, THE STEADY BAND OF RAIN HAS BEGUN TO BREAK APART AND
TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY REGIME WITH SHOWERS FINALLY REACHING
THE CENTRAL COAST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SO FAR OCCURRED OVER THE
NORTH BAY. HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS WERE IN THE MARIN HEADLANDS WITH
2.25" , REST OF THE N BAY/SANTA CRUZ MTS 0.5-1.5", AND ELSEWHERE
IS MUCH LESS WITH NOTHING TO A TENTH OR TWO.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WE'RE NOT DONE YET. STILL EXPECTING WINDS
TO BE IMPACTFUL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH THEY'LL SLOWLY
EASE. ADDITIONALLY, WE HAVEN'T HAD ANY THUNDERSTORMS YET, BUT THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SET UP
LEADING TO MORE INSTABILITY. TSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY NORTH
OF GOLDEN GATE AND EVEN MORE LIKELY NORTH OF THE NORTH BAY.
MM
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 153 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
OUR WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA
AS OF THIS WRITING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS STARTING TO CRANK ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH AREAS NEAR POINT ARENA CONSISTENTLY
GUSTING IN THE 55-60 MPH RANGE. IN ADDITION, AREAS NEAR THE MARIN
HEADLANDS HAVE OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40-45 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS GREAT AS 66 MPH. WIND HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME
AND WE'RE STILL ANTICIPATING WIND GUSTS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 25 MPH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SHELTERED VALLEY REGIONS, GUSTS
AROUND 45 TO 55 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAY AREA. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY, LARGELY ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS THE MARIN HEADLANDS. THE HIGH WIND
WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE PACIFIC COAST NORTH OF THE GOLDEN
GATE, BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA DIMINISHES, WE'LL LIKELY
BE ABLE TO CONVERT HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
THREAT FOR +58MPH WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL, ANTICIPATE A POTENTIAL THAT ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR
DECOR/ARTICLES TO BE DISPLACED AND DRIVING DIFFICULTIES ON EAST-
WEST ORIENTED ROADWAYS FOR LIGHTWEIGHT AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO STILL POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT FOR
TREE DAMAGE.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST IS WHERE THINGS ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF SOME SLIGHT TIMING NUISANCES, BUT ALSO THE
COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY. WITH LARGELY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE'S A 4 TO 5 HOUR
WINDOW WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OPTIMIZED. PWATS CLIMB TO OR ABOVE 1" AND THIS IN TANDEM WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT SHOULD EQUATE TO MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY
RAINFALL. TAKING A LOOK AT SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE,
THERE'S AROUND A 55-75% CHANCE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WILL EXCEED 1"-3" ACROSS THE SONOMA COASTAL RANGE, THE
NORTHERN MAYACAMAS, AND PORTIONS OF THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT QPF WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE SONOMA
COASTAL RANGES AND THE LATEST FORECAST ADJUST TOTALS UPWARD ACROSS
THESE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS. ELSEWHERE UP TO 1" OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.
EVEN WITH THE INCREASE IN ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING REMAINS NEARLY
NON-EXISTENT EVEN USING WORST CASE SCENARIO FORECASTS FROM THE
HYDROLOGIC ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (THOUGH SOMETIMES THESE CAN BE
A LITTLE UNDERDISPERSIVE). WHAT'S MORE PROBABLE ARE IMPACTS TO
THE MORNING COMMUTE (BAY AREA) AND EVENING COMMUTES (CENTRAL
COAST). PONDING ON ROADWAYS COULD RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS AND
BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HYDROPLANING. BE SURE TO CHECK CONDITIONS AND ALLOW
YOURSELF EXTRA DRIVE TIME ON YOUR COMMUTE.
FINALLY, THERE THERE WILL BE AROUND A 20% RISK FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, LARGELY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. THE
BACKGROUND KINEMATIC WIND FIELD DOES SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE MODES CAPABLE OF ENHANCED OUTFLOW WINDS. AT THIS TIME,
IT APPEARS THAT THIS THREAT MAY BE GREATEST WITH THE INITIAL NCFR.
IF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY
TAKE ON MORE OF A DISCRETE CELLULAR MODE AND THE ENVIRONMENT
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED ROTATING CONVECTIVE CELLS. THIS
THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, THE FLOW REMAIN
LARGELY ZONAL. LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH BAY ACTUALLY BACKS
SOME SUCH THAT MODEST ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW RESUMES, GIVING THIS
REGION ANOTHER SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. RAIN TOTALS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ROUND ARE FORECAST TO BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER AS PWAT VALUES SLIP DOWN BELOW 0.75".
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH TO MAYBE UP TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 153 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT THURSDAY MORNING WOULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG. AT THIS TIME, I'LL ADVERTISE
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY BE THE
FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT AND WE'LL RE-EXAMINE THINGS THROUGH THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING.
BRIEF RIDGING IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH ITSELF THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TRANSLATES TO LITTLE TO NO POP
ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND AND THE BLEND SEEMS
REASONABLE, THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A MODEST PUSH OF
OFFSHORE FLOW. AT PRESENT TIME, THIS GUIDANCE IS IN THE MINORITY,
HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES WILL FEATURE
HIGHER MAXTS THAN WHAT'S CURRENTLY ADVERTISED (HIGHS BETWEEN 60
AND 80 DEGREES AREAWIDE). THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT EVEN IF IT ENDS UP
BEING WARMER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, HEATRISK IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN LARGELY IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY.
GETTING INTO THE DAYS 5 AND 6 (MONDAY AND TUESDAY) TIMEFRAME,
MODEL CONSISTENCY DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE
GFS, GEFS, AND EPS ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN OUR RIDGING PATTERN THROUGH
WHILE THE REMAINING THIRD ADVERTISES A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST. THE FORMER SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WEST COAST WOULD WARRANT RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT
PRESENT TIME, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
LOW (20%-30%) POPS RETURNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
MVFR AND IFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CIGS SCATTER FOR MOST AREAS INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WINDS REDUCE. THE NORTH BAY AND HAF LOOK
TO KEEP CIGS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES SEE CIGS RETURN IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING ON
THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...STRONG SOUTHERN GUSTS LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PEAKING ABOVE 35 KTS. EXPECT WINDS TO REDUCE AND BECOME
MORE MODERATE INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER SCATTERS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT IN THE LATE NIGHT AS MVFR CIGS RETURN. WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS LINGER
INTO THE EVENING WITH MODERATE WINDS AT MRY AND GUSTY WINDS AT SNS.
WINDS DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVER SCATTERS. EXPECT
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS RETURNING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
GALE FORCE WINDS LAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE REDUCING IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF PIGEON POINT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER, CONFUSED SEAS. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 248 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS WESTERLY SWELL ROLLS IN WITH BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
UP TO 22 FEET, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST FACING BEACHES. THIS WILL
EQUATE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES. IN
ADDITION, HIGHER SURF MAY ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING NOT ONLY AN INCREASE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT, BUT AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE AND BEACH EROSION. REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE
ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-503-504-
506-508>510-512-515.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ502-505.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-
SF BAY N OF BAY BRIDGE.
SHORT TERM...BAIN
LONG TERM....BAIN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page