851
FXUS66 KMTR 060517
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
917 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 121 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
-WIND, RAIN, AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST.
-HAZARDOUS BOATING, BEACH, AND COASTAL CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH
WINDS, SURF AND TIDALLY INFLUENCED FLOODING THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 118 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE BULK OF THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN, BUT IT'S NOT
OVER YET. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS STILL SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT TRAVERSING THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A SQUEEZED WARM FRONT
ORIENTED N-S AHEAD OF IT. THIS SET UP IS STILL PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. PEAK WINDS
HAVE ENDED, BUT STILL SEEING GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. FOR SIMPLICITY
SAKE WILL KEEP WIND HAZARDS AS IS THROUGH 4 PM WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE NORTH BAY AND COAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE
OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL REMAINS BREEZY. KMUX RADAR STILL SHOWS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY TERRAIN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE (15% N BAY) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT NOT LOOKING LIKELY
GIVEN LACK OF THUNDER THUS FAR. MUCH LIKE THE WINDS, SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND MORE SO OVERNIGHT.
AS NOTED ON PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, CLEARING SKIES, DECREASING
WINDS, AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASED FOG
CHANCES TONIGHT. HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL BE OVER THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS WITH A 30-45% CHC.
OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AND MUCH LESS
WINDY. EXPECT SOME MORE SUNSHINE TOO, LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
TAIL END OF A ANOTHER SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE NORTH BAY THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 230 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
LONG WAVE PATTERN SHOWS RIDGING DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NICE
WEATHER WILL BE ENHANCED WITH A BURST OF OFFSHORE FLOW TOO.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL ADVERTISES MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SATURDAY.
IF YOU'RE MAKING THIS WEEKEND A BEACH DAY WEEKEND READ MORE BELOW
MORE INFORMATION. THE SURF ZONE WILL BE ENERGETIC.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS AMONG CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ENSEMBLES, AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE OBVIOUSLY VARY AT THE 6-7 DAY TIMEFRAME, BUT ALL SHOW
SOME SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE PACNW WITH RAIN IN CA. CURRENT
FORECAST BRINGS RAIN BACK BY WEDNESDAY. FWIW CPC LONGER RANGE
OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS A LOT OF CA FOR SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR
HEAVY PRECIP FROM NOV 13-15.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 854 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THIS
EVENING. CIGS MOSTLY LINGERING JUST ABOVE IFR FOR MOST NORTH OF
KSJC. ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THIS WAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSTS
WHERE LOWER CIGS AND SOME PATCHY FG IS POSSIBLE. MODERATE-TO-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIMES TO VFR THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR PATCHY MVFR STRATUS.
ANTICIPATING MORE CONSISTENT MARINE STRATUS INTRUSION ONCE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 12Z. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CLEARING TIME.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...QUIET CONDITIONS AS FAR AS WINDS AND
LEFTOVER SHOWERS GO. WEATHER HAS BASICALLY BEEN RESTORED TO A
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING STRATUS, MID-MORNING VFR PATTERN. VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FG BEFORE SUNRISE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SKIES STAY CLEAR DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
GALE FORCE WINDS LAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE REDUCING IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF PIGEON POINT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER, CONFUSED SEAS. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 248 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS WESTERLY SWELL ROLLS IN WITH BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS IN
UP TO 22 FEET, PARTICULARLY FOR WEST FACING BEACHES. THIS WILL
EQUATE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES. IN
ADDITION, HIGHER SURF MAY ARRIVE ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
RESULTING NOT ONLY AN INCREASE IN THE RIP CURRENT AND SNEAKER WAVE
THREAT, BUT AN INCREASE IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO COASTAL
INFRASTRUCTURE AND BEACH EROSION. REMEMBER, SNEAKER WAVES CAN
UNEXPECTEDLY RUN SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL,
INCLUDING OVER ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE
FREQUENT AND STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND
PIERS. SWIMMERS SHOULD ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD. STAY OFF THE
ROCKS, REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...MURDOCK
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