666
FXUS66 KMTR 061036
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
236 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 226 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
-LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE NORTH BAY AND SAN MATEO
PENINSULA COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY.
-TIDALLY INFLUENCED COASTAL FLOODING AND HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND.
-PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL YIELD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 226 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, CONDITIONS ARE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL AS OUR
POTENT UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER, WESTERLY MOIST FLOW WITHIN THE 700-500MB LAYER
ALONG WITH MODEST 925-850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AT A MINIMUM
RE-INFORCE CLOUD COVER, PARTICULARLY FOR THE BAY AREA AND POINTS
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL ASCENT IS MOST PROMINENT ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
AND AS A RESULT, I'VE OPTED TO MAKE SOME SLIGHT ALTERATIONS TO
INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 20-40% POPS AND LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. THE THICK LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY HINDER
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT HERE, AND I'VE OPTED FOR
"PATCHY" FOG WORDING HERE. FARTHER SOUTH, LOW LEVEL FLOW IS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH MAY NOT ENCOURAGE AS MUCH ASCENT AND
THIS MINIMIZES THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS (EXCEPT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). WITH THE RELATIVELY CLEARER CONDITIONS
IN TANDEM WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR A GREATER
COVERAGE OF RADIATION FOG, SOME DENSE, WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE
SOUTH BAY AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL COAST. WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS FOR
ANY POTENTIAL DENSE FOG PRODUCTS.
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, IT'S UNLIKELY THAT OUR NEXT FRONT WILL
MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TODAY. PERSISTENT
WESTERLY WARM/MOIST FLOW IN TANDEM WITH OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY. RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
AVERAGE AROUND 0.10", MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SONOMA COASTAL
RANGES. WHILE MEANINGFUL POPS ARE ADVERTISED AS FAR SOUTH AS SANTA
ROSA, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING 0.10" HERE IS AROUND 5%.
LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, A MID-LEVEL JET MAX CHARACTERIZED
BY 100 KNOT FLOW WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON. AS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES, THIS SHOULD HELP DRAG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. EVENTUALLY, THIS FEATURE WILL UNDERGO
FRONTOLYSIS AS THE PARENT SURFACE LOW LIFTS EASTWARD.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 226 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
BEFORE OUR NEXT FRONT COMPLETELY LOSES STEAM, IT STILL APPEARS
THAT IT'LL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH BAY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. MEASURABLE
RAINFALL DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE EVEN SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. POPS
RANGE FROM NEAR 70% ALONG THE SONOMA/MENDOCINO COUNTY LINE TO 15%
JUST SOUTH OF HALF MOON BAY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE NEWER NBM
PROBABILITIES DO SUGGEST THAT LOW POPS MAY BE NEEDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS, BUT FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH
THAT SUFFICIENT ASCENT WILL RESIDE THAT FAR SOUTH. TRENDS IN SHORT
TERM NWP WILL BE MONITORED. RAIN AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR RELATIVELY
LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST DAY OR SO WITH VALUES LARGELY UNDER
1/4 OF AN INCH.
LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WEEKEND. RIDGING IS
ANTICIPATED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHICH TURNS OUR
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY. OFFSHORE FLOW
AT LEAST WITHIN THE 500-925MB LAYER SHOULD AT SCOUR OUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO WARMER AND MORE PLEASANT
CONDITIONS OUTDOORS WITH HIGHS RANGING BETWEEN THE MID 60S TO MID
80S. IF HEADED TO THE BEACH, BEWARE THAT LONG PERIOD WESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES.
WE'VE HIGHLIGHTED THIS THREAT WITH A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT. FOR
MORE DETAILS, SEE THE "BEACHES" SECTION OF THE AFD.
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH A FAIR TO FOUL WEATHER TRANSITION NEXT WEEK. ABOUT 1/4 OF GFS
AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ADVERTISE THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL START
TO BREAKDOWN AND TROUGHING WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST BY
MONDAY EVENING, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
ADVERTISING THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT 24-48 HOURS
LATER. FOR NOW, WILL RIDE WITH THE BLEND FOR POPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THESE SPATIAL DISCREPANCIES EQUATE TO A BROAD-BRUSH AND LOW
CONFIDENCE RAIN FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. INITIAL
GLANCES AT SOME AR TOOLS WOULD POINT TO MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL,
BUT AS WE VENTURE CLOSER, WE'LL REFINE TIMING, RAIN AMOUNTS, AND
IMPACTS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 854 PM PST WED NOV 5 2025
VERY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END THIS
EVENING. CIGS MOSTLY LINGERING JUST ABOVE IFR FOR MOST NORTH OF
KSJC. ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THIS WAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSTS
WHERE LOWER CIGS AND SOME PATCHY FG IS POSSIBLE. MODERATE-TO-HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING TIMES TO VFR THURSDAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...LOW CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS COVERAGE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR PATCHY MVFR STRATUS.
ANTICIPATING MORE CONSISTENT MARINE STRATUS INTRUSION ONCE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE OUT BY ABOUT 12Z. MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
VFR CLEARING TIME.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...QUIET CONDITIONS AS FAR AS WINDS AND
LEFTOVER SHOWERS GO. WEATHER HAS BASICALLY BEEN RESTORED TO A
TYPICAL EARLY MORNING STRATUS, MID-MORNING VFR PATTERN. VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FG BEFORE SUNRISE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SKIES STAY CLEAR DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE NIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM PST WED NOV 5 2025
GALE FORCE WINDS LAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE REDUCING IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
ALL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A THREAT OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND NORTH OF PIGEON POINT. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER, CONFUSED SEAS. A WATERSPOUT OR TWO CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.
LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
THOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 226 AM PST THU NOV 6 2025
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALL
PACIFIC COAST BEACHES. TODAY'S CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE CUSP OF
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT/HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS BREAKING WAVES UP TO 25
FEET. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SWIMMING
CONDITIONS, STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE, AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN! THE
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY SWELL QUICKLY
REBUILDING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-506-
508-529-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BAIN
LONG TERM....BAIN
AVIATION...BEHRINGER
MARINE...MURDOCK
BEACHES...SARMENT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA
X.COM/NWSBAYAREA
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSBAYAREA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page