241
FXUS66 KMTR 211722
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
922 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
- DRIER CONDITIONS BEGINNING TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES THE DAY AFTER THANKSGIVING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS
INTERIOR SAN BENITO COUNTY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS TO OUR
SOUTH. THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY SUNRISE TODAY, WHICH WILL
BE DRIER AND CLEARER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MORNING
SHOULD DAWN CLEAR AND BRIGHT ACROSS THE BAY AREA, WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY FOG OVER THE SOUTH BAY AND CENTRAL COAST
DISSIPATING BEFORE THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BARRING THE
NORTH BAY VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 60S, WHILE THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1231 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW A RIDGING PATTERN TO SETTLE
IN ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, USHERING IN A DRIER PATTERN
THAT SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER SHOULD REDEVELOP ON
SATURDAY, BUT WEAK EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MARINE LAYER
STRATUS FROM COMING INLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOVER
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, NEAR OR UP TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY THE DAY AFTER THANKSGIVING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE MEMBER CLUSTER ANALYSIS HINTS AT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OFF THE WEST COAST AND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
STATE. AS OF NOW, THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SPLIT ROUGHLY 50-50
BETWEEN THOSE SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THOSE THAT SHOW MORE ZONAL FLOW OR POSSIBLY EVEN A RIDGE OVER
THE REGION. THE CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS A LEAN TO PRECIPITATION
TOTALS NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR A PERIOD FROM THE 26TH TO THE
30TH. FOR CONTEXT, LOOKING AT THE HISTORICAL AVERAGES, AROUND HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN WOULD FALL IN DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO DURING THIS
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
TERMINALS WHERE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND REDEVELOPING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS. ELEVATED SEAS
WILL BE PROLONGED BY THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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