712
FXUS66 KMTR 212049
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1249 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
- VERY QUIET WITH FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- MARINE STRATUS RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT CLEAR DURING THE
DAYS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DETAILS VERY UNCLEAR, BUT HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A WESTERN US
PATTERN CHANGE AFTER THANKSGIVING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
THERE ALMOST ISN'T A CLOUD IN THE SKY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE 11 COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ARE PAVING THE WAY FOR FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT'LL BE A COPY/PASTE FROM
TODAY WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING MARINE STRATUS FILLING IN
ALONG THE COASTLINE SATURDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1220 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM TODAY. CONTINUED COOL TEMPS
WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN US INTO THANKSGIVING, WHICH WOULD ALLOW FAIR WEATHER
TO PERSIST AND RESULT IN A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY A FEW
DEGREES INTO LATE WEEK. PROBABLY NOT EVEN NOTICEABLE BY MOST.
LOOKING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD IS WHERE WE FIND OUR NEXT
INTERESTING WEATHER FEATURE. LONG TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE A VERY DEEP, CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE SW US
FROM CANADA. AT THIS POINT, THE SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGES SO MUCH THAT IT'S NOT WORTH TRYING TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING
SPECIFIC AT THIS POINT. POSSIBILITIES RANGE FROM A VERY PROLIFIC
RAIN MAKER TO A NOTHING BURGER WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS AGAIN.
WHAT'S THE TAKE-AWAY HERE? CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DIGGING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN US SOMETIME
AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW REGARDING WHERE IT'LL
SET UP AND HOW MUCH IT'LL DIG TO THE SW. ONE OTHER FEATURE THAT
HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC UP INTO AK AND NORTHWEST CANADA.
THIS REINFORCES THE SIGNAL THAT THERE WILL BE A DEEP UPPER LOW
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN US. BE SURE TO STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH BAY
TERMINALS WHERE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING TO WEST-NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND REDEVELOPING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AND BECOME WEST-NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING.
WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
EVEN AS WINDS DIMINISH SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS. ELEVATED SEAS
WILL BE PROLONGED BY THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 919 AM PST FRI NOV 21 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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