883
FXUS66 KMTR 221736
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
936 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 111 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
- BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK
- COASTAL STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT, BUT CLEAR DURING THE DAYTIME
- PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVES AFTER THANKSGIVING, WITH DETAILS HIGHLY
UNCLEAR
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 111 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
THE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR SO FAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW STEMMING FROM THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A BUILDING
RIDGING PATTERN COMING IN BEHIND IT. RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN THE INLAND VALLEYS, INCLUDING SONOMA COUNTY AND
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CONTRA COSTA COUNTY, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S IN THE INLAND VALLEYS,
TO THE UPPER 50S AND THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS
EVENING, A MARINE LAYER SHOULD REDEVELOP AND BRING STRATUS BACK TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE MARINE LAYER RATHER COMPRESSED AND INLAND
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 111 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
WASH, RINSE, AND REPEAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AS THE MILD RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE WEST COAST AND GIVES US SIMILAR CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAYBE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE BAY AREA AS
ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS INTO THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY, KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AND
RAISING TEMPERATURES AROUND A FEW DEGREES BY THANKSGIVING, WHICH
MIGHT END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.
THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE PROGNOSIS IN THE PATTERN CHANGE
COMING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS VERY HIGH, WITH "BOOM" SCENARIOS OF A PROLIFIC RAINFALL
AND "BUST" SCENARIOS OF NO APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE STILL IN PLAY. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
NOTED, CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE *A* STORM SYSTEM IN THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES IS HIGH, EXEMPLIFIED BY A HIGH- AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO ALASKA AND NORTHWESTERN
CANADA, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE IT WILL SET UP AND ITS IMPACTS TO
THE REGION REMAIN LOW. ONE OTHER THING TO MENTION IS THAT WITH THE
UPCOMING THANKSGIVING WEEKEND, EVEN IF THE MOST IMPACTFUL EFFECTS
FROM THIS SYSTEM DO MISS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST,
POTENTIAL HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS MAY BE IMPACTED, PARTICULARLY FOR
THOSE HEADING OUT EAST FOR THE EXTENDED HOLIDAY. STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST UPDATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AS WE REFINE WHAT
EXACTLY IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MOST TERMINALS AS OF THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET AND ACROSS THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE NORTH BAY TO SEE IFR/LIFR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS. LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR (POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR)
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z SUNDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO RETURN
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR/LIFR AT
KOAK. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
OVER KSFO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND SLIGHTLY
AFTER. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR MVFR/IFR (POTENTIALLY LOWER TO LIFR) AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE AFTER
18Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL LEADING TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS EASE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ510.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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