563
FXUS66 KMTR 222240
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
240 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS WEEK. MORNING STRATUS RETURNS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A DRIER OUTCOME FOR THE STORM JUST
OUTSIDE 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
AS STATED, NEARLY COPY/PASTE FROM YESTERDAY WITH ALMOST EVERYONE
WITHIN 3-4 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. SPREAD OF SURFACE OBS
SHOWING A HINT OF A MARINE LAYER FORMING TOPPING OUT AROUND 1000
FEET. SOME ADDITIONAL HINTS OF MORE MOIST NW FLOW AS WELL AS
MARINE STRATUS STARTS TO FORM OF THE COAST OF SONOMA AND MARIN
COUNTIES. THIS STRATUS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS WE
HANG ON TO THE MARINE LAYER GOING INTO TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY FOG GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND ENSUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AMID VERY STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
UPSTREAM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT A COUPLE A DAYS LATER
WILL BE A FAIRLY NOTABLE SOUTHWARD DIVE OF THE JET STREAM AND
DISPLACEMENT OF VERY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE
AGREEMENT ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH
WOULD BE THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR US - POTENTIALLY COMPLETELY DRY.
AT THIS POINT WE'RE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY JUST BEYOND OUR 7 DAY PERIOD.
AS ALWAYS, STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN A SYSTEM LIKE THIS CAN MEAN VERY DIFFERENT THINGS FOR
US.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO MOST TERMINALS AS OF THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
SUNSET AND ACROSS THE BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THE NORTH BAY TO SEE IFR/LIFR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE BAY AREA TERMINALS. LOW
TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR (POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO LIFR)
AROUND THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONSHORE
WINDS INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY
THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z SUNDAY. THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES TO RETURN
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR/LIFR AT
KOAK. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES
OVER KSFO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND SLIGHTLY
AFTER. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
FOR MVFR/IFR (POTENTIALLY LOWER TO LIFR) AROUND 12Z SUNDAY.
EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS/REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE AFTER
18Z.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODERATE SEAS CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR AREA AND LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY
SWELL LEADING TO HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. WAVE HEIGHTS EASE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, INCREASING BY THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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