905
FXUS66 KMTR 230557
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
957 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
- DRY AND MILD THROUGH THIS WEEK. MORNING STRATUS RETURNS.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING. HIGH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL OR A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A DRIER OUTCOME FOR THE STORM JUST
OUTSIDE 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. THE CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
THE EXPANSION OF THE STRATUS AND IF WE GET ANY FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS STRATUS HUGGING MARIN, SAN
FRANCISCO, AND SAN MATEO COUNTY COASTLINES, WITH SOME OF IT
SEEPING INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTH BAY AND DOWN THE
CENTRAL COAST. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EAST BAY ON WHETHER IT
COULD SEE INFLUENCES FROM THE TULE FOG AGAIN OR IF THE STRATUS
MAKES A GOOD ENOUGH PUSH INLAND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
AS STATED, NEARLY COPY/PASTE FROM YESTERDAY WITH ALMOST EVERYONE
WITHIN 3-4 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO. SPREAD OF SURFACE OBS
SHOWING A HINT OF A MARINE LAYER FORMING TOPPING OUT AROUND 1000
FEET. SOME ADDITIONAL HINTS OF MORE MOIST NW FLOW AS WELL AS
MARINE STRATUS STARTS TO FORM OF THE COAST OF SONOMA AND MARIN
COUNTIES. THIS STRATUS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS WE
HANG ON TO THE MARINE LAYER GOING INTO TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
VALLEY FOG GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. ANOTHER GREAT
WEATHER DAY SUNDAY WITH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 202 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND ENSUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT. AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE
RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AMID VERY STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
UPSTREAM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT A COUPLE A DAYS LATER
WILL BE A FAIRLY NOTABLE SOUTHWARD DIVE OF THE JET STREAM AND
DISPLACEMENT OF VERY COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC INTO THE MOUNTAIN
WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW MORE
AGREEMENT ON A MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH AXIS, WHICH
WOULD BE THE DRIER SOLUTION FOR US - POTENTIALLY COMPLETELY DRY.
AT THIS POINT WE'RE LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH BAY JUST BEYOND OUR 7 DAY PERIOD.
AS ALWAYS, STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. SLIGHT
SHIFTS IN A SYSTEM LIKE THIS CAN MEAN VERY DIFFERENT THINGS FOR
US.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A POOL OF NEAR SURFACE COOLER AIR WITH STRATUS /IFR/ OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE BAY
AREA FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT'S MAINLY CLEAR /VFR/. NIGHT-TIME
RADIATIVE COOLING TO SPACE FAVORS ONGOING STRATUS AND PATCHES OF
FOG /LIFR-IFR/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE INLAND EXPANDING
MARITIME INFLUENCE DESCRIBED, THIS MAY HELP LIMIT DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER IT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
VICINITY OF SFO...SO FAR VFR HAS HELD AT THE TERMINAL WITH STRATUS
SITTING OUT BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP, WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
RECENTLY UP TO 13 KNOTS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR. 00Z HREF
SHOWS A 30% PROBABILITY OF IFR AT 21Z (1 PM PST) SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. VFR THIS EVENING, THEN THERE'S
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH 30%-40% PROBABILITY OF IFR LINGERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS /LIFR-IFR/
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO ONSHORE 5 TO
10 KNOTS MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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