769
FXUS66 KMTR 230853
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1253 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
- DRY AND MILD THIS WEEK WITH STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THANKSGIVING WITH HIGHS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR A DRIER OUTCOME FOR THE STORM AT THE
END OF THIS WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SONOMA COUNTY
VALLEYS AND WESTERN MARIN COUNTY, HUGGING THE COAST OF SAN FRANCISCO
AND SAN MATEO COUNTIES, AND ISOLATED PATCHES DEVELOPING IN THE
BERKELEY-RICHMOND AREA, THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY PENINSULA. DATA FROM THE PROFILER AT BODEGA BAY AND CAREFUL
ANALYSIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS A MARINE LAYER DEPTH OF
AROUND 500-1000 FEET. THE FORECAST UPDATE CALLS FOR THE STRATUS
LAYER TO EXPAND ACROSS NAPA VALLEY, THE BAY AREA, THE SOUTHERN
MONTEREY BAY, AND THE NORTHERN SALINAS VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT, BEFORE RETREATING TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST DURING THE DAY.
THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW IS RATHER ZONAL (WEST-TO-EAST) TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOWER 60S ALONG THE PACIFIC AND BAYSIDE COASTS. LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WILL LIE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S IN
THE INLAND VALLEYS, AND THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. A
GENTLE ONSHORE BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE VERY STRONG, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 MILES PER HOUR AT
MOST ALONG FAVORED COASTAL LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1252 AM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR ON MONDAY, BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT BRINGS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
(THURSDAY), COMPRESSING THE MARINE LAYER AND RAISING TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES. THE WARMEST SPOTS OF THE INLAND VALLEYS (THINK THE
MORGAN HILL-GILROY REGION AND THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY) MIGHT
TOUCH THE LOWER 70S ON THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BREAKS DOWN, AND ONE AMPLIFIES
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. AS A RESULT, COLD ARCTIC AIR
DESCENDS INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ENSEMBLE
MODEL CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS A DRIER SOLUTION
FOR OUR REGION, AS THE TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND
POTENTIALLY GIVES US A SOLUTION CLOSER TO AN INSIDE SLIDER THAN A
BIG RAINMAKER. IF THIS WERE THE CASE, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS AT AND BEYOND THE END OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST. AS
ALWAYS, FOLLOW FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES LOCALLY
AND, FOR THOSE PLANNING SOME THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL, ACROSS THE
NATION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 957 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A POOL OF NEAR SURFACE COOLER AIR WITH STRATUS /IFR/ OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND OVER THE BAY
AREA FROM SAN MATEO COUNTY NORTHWARD. ELSEWHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW IT'S MAINLY CLEAR /VFR/. NIGHT-TIME
RADIATIVE COOLING TO SPACE FAVORS ONGOING STRATUS AND PATCHES OF
FOG /LIFR-IFR/ TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE INLAND EXPANDING
MARITIME INFLUENCE DESCRIBED, THIS MAY HELP LIMIT DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING, HOWEVER IT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
VICINITY OF SFO...SO FAR VFR HAS HELD AT THE TERMINAL WITH STRATUS
SITTING OUT BY THE SAN BRUNO GAP, WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
RECENTLY UP TO 13 KNOTS. FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR. 00Z HREF
SHOWS A 30% PROBABILITY OF IFR AT 21Z (1 PM PST) SUNDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. VFR THIS EVENING, THEN THERE'S
INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LIFR-IFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH 30%-40% PROBABILITY OF IFR LINGERING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...LOW CONFIDENCE VFR CONTINUES THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH AN INCREASING PROBABILITY OF LOW STRATUS /LIFR-IFR/
OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS WELL. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO ONSHORE 5 TO
10 KNOTS MID TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 908 PM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD LATE NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 935 AM PST SAT NOV 22 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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