740
FXUS66 KMTR 240214
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
614 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
- QUIET WEEK AHEAD. GREAT FOR YARD WORK AND HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES.
- COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
- POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
MARINE LAYER MORE SOLIDLY IN PLACE TODAY AS THE WEAK OFFSHORE
GRADIENT REVERSES TO WEAK ONSHORE. STILL SOME AIRMASS COMPRESSION
GOING ON WITH WEAK RIDGING IN PLACE IN THE WAKE OF LAST WEEK'S
SYSTEM. DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN
THE NORTH BAY DESPITE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER KEEPING THINGS
COOLER. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT THEY WILL MIX OUT RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TEMPS REBOUND A BIT. PROBABLY STILL REMAINING A BIT
COOLER THAN FORECAST THOUGH. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ARE BASICALLY
PERSISTENCE FORECASTS (COPY/PASTE) WITH THE WEAK RIDGE PREVAILING
AND 500 MB HEIGHTS BASICALLY STAYING STAGNANT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
IF YOU'VE READ THE DISCUSSION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, YOU ALREADY
KNOW WHAT'S GOING ON. IT'S A FRUSTRATING PATTERN, BUT ONE VERY
IMPORTANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON. NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TODAY, SO I'LL GIVE A GENERAL RECAP OF WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT. VERY
QUIET THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS WE GO.
SERIOUSLY, IT'S GOING TO BE A GREAT WEEK, WEATHER-WISE. HOWEVER,
BY THE END OF THE WEEK THINGS CHANGE PRETTY AGGRESSIVELY IN THE
GENERAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. STILL LOOKING AT A VERY DEEP
UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN US AS A RESULT OF A VERY
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING UP INTO NW CANADA AND ALASKA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS COME TO A BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL LIKELY
SEE THE WINDY AND DRY SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS
AND WHEN DO THEY START? A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY THE
MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE IMPACTS, BUT RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
WE'LL POTENTIALLY START TO SEE OFFSHORE WINDS INCREASING IN THE
NORTH BAY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LATE SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING
DAYS, SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
IT'S VFR-MVFR OVER THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT IFR-LIFR DUE TO RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EAST BAY AND THE NORTH BAY.
COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE TO LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, CEILINGS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR-LIFR INCLUDING POSSIBLY VLIFR IN DENSE
FOG. THE 00Z (4 PM PST) OAKLAND SOUNDING, MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING'S
12Z SOUNDING, SHOWED A LOWER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
BASED NEAR 1500 FEET; COOLER AIR REMAINS WELL ENTRENCHED UNDER THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WITH ADDITIONAL COOLER AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING PER NAM OUTPUT (WITH ADDITIONAL LOSS OF HEAT TO
SPACE VIA RADIATIVE COOLING WHERE IT'S INITIALLY DRY/CLEAR SKY). FOR
TOMORROW HREF SHOWS CLEARING BY 21Z (1 PM PST) ACROSS THE BAY AREA,
SUGGESTING IMPROVING MIXING MAY RESULT IN EARLIER MIX OUT TIMES
COMPARED TO TODAY.
VICINITY OF SFO...A WEST WIND HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE 00Z (4 PM) WITH
STRATUS IN THE SAN BRUNO GAP. FEW-SCT015 FORECAST FOR THE EVENING,
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SINCE RECENT HRRR OUTPUT SHOWS 90% OR
GREATER HUMIDITY I.E. STRATUS MOVING IN AS SOON AS 02Z-03Z THIS
EVENING, MAY NEED TO AMEND CEILING FORECAST FOR EARLIER ARRIVAL OF
MVFR CEILING. OTHERWISE MVFR DOES MOVE IN TONIGHT NO LATER THAN
09Z, LIKELY EARLIER AS MENTIONED. MVFR UNTIL 20Z MONDAY. WEST WIND
NEAR 10 KNOTS DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
THEN NORTHWEST TO WEST NEAR 5 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR FOR THE EARLY
TO MID EVENING, OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR-IFR WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO
IFR EVERYWHERE BY LATE EVENING. IFR TONIGHT IN STRATUS INCLUDING
LIFR-VLIFR IN PATCHY FOG TO DENSE FOG. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
MVFR-VFR BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY. ONSHORE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO ONSHORE 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
MODERATE SEAS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS THEN GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 614 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO
PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...RGASS
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