923
FXUS66 KMTR 242145
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
145 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 144 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRY AND MILD THIS WEEK
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 144 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHILE UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING LESS CLOUD COVER AND FOG
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL WORK TO COMPRESS THE MARINE
LAYER. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTH BAY
VALLEYS IN RESPONDS TO DRAINAGE FLOW IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
AND EAST BAY VALLEYS AS TULE FOG SPILLS IN FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM THE 40S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH THE WARMEST INTERIOR
SPOTS IN THE SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA VALLEY, HOLLISTER VALLEY, AND
INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST REACHING UP TO AROUND 70 DEGREES F.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 144 PM PST MON NOV 24 2025
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT. THIS IS WHEN WE
ARE EXPECTING LOWER 70S IN THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY, HOLLISTER VALLEY,
AND INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER: "TOWARDS FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BREAKS DOWN, AND ONE AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA. AS A RESULT, COLD ARCTIC AIR DESCENDS INTO THE
MOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO POINT TO THIS SYSTEM FOLLOWING MORE OF AN INSIDE SLIDER
LIKE DEVELOPMENT IN OUR REGION. IN OTHER WORDS, THE IMPACTS OF THIS
TROUGH FALL INTO THE WINDY AND DRY SIDE RATHER THAN THE RAINY SIDE.
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW STRONG THE IMPACTS WILL BE AND WHERE THE
GREATEST THREATS WILL OCCUR, BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A PERIOD
OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH, AND SOMEWHAT BEYOND, THE END OF THE 7-
DAY FORECAST PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT NATURE OF THE IMPACTS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, SO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION."
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 933 AM PST MON NOV 24 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A GENTLE
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SHORT TERM IS
STRAIGHT FORWARD, THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING
OVERNIGHT. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
MID LEVELS AND A DEEPENING COASTAL TROUGH AT THE SURFACE MAKE THE
UNCERTAINTY BALLOON EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WIND SPEED
WILL BE LIGHT, THE DIRECTION IS HARD TO PIN DOWN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WIND DIRECTION PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN THE FORMATION OF STRATUS
AND FOG, SO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DIRECTION MEANS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE TAFS LEAN OPTIMISTIC, BUT THERE IS A
NOTABLE CHANCE FOR THULE FOG TO SPILL OVER THROUGH THE DELTA AND
IMPACT SOME BAY AREA TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...THE STRATUS SCATTERED OUT AT 1717Z, A COUPLE
HOURS EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY FLIP TO THE TYPICAL
WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE EXACT TIMING IS HARD TO
PIN DOWN. THERE IS A ROUGHLY 20% CHANCE FOR BOTH MVRF CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITY IMPACTS TUESDAY MORNING. THIS TREND HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY DECREASING SINCE THE LAST TAF UPDATE.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...THERE IS SOME HAZE OVER THE BAY ON THE
CAMERAS THAT HASN'T BEEN REPORTED AT THE TERMINAL. THIS MAY
IMPACT THE BRIDGE APPROACH VISUALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MIXES OUT.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...THE CEILINGS HAVE HELD ON LONGER THAN
THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO THIS MORNING. MRY IS ON THE VERGE OF
CLEARING, BUT THE SATELLITE TREND SHOWS A NEW PULSE OF STRATUS MAY
PUSH THE CLEARING TIME A COUPLE MORE HOURS. SNS IS FULLY SOCKED IN
AND SHOULD HAVE A SIMILAR CLEARING TIME. AFTERWARDS THE CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH GENTLE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WINDS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE
FOR STRATUS TO RETURN, WITH AN IFR CLOUD BASE EXPECTED IF IT
DOES.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 855 AM PST MON NOV 24 2025
THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK, BUILDING MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 614 PM PST SUN NOV 23 2025
A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A
LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS. BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO 18
FEET ARE EXPECTED. SNEAKER WAVES CAN UNEXPECTEDLY RUN
SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER UP THE BEACH THAN NORMAL, INCLUDING OVER
ROCKS AND JETTIES. RIP CURRENTS ARE TYPICALLY MORE FREQUENT AND
STRONGER IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES, INLETS, AND PIERS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS/DIALH
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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