345
FXUS66 KMTR 260009
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
409 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES
- GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY, YET ARE FORECAST
TO BEGIN CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THEY DO NOT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY UP TO 10
DEGREES. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS WHILE THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
NORTH BAY AND SAN FRANCISCO PENINSULA REMAIN IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
50S.
AS OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION,
THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS COMPRESSED. THUS, THERE IS GREATER
PROBABILITY FOR LESS COVERAGE OF FOG OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, STILL
EXPECTING PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS,
EAST BAY VALLEYS, AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 40S WITH THE COLDEST
INTERIOR SPOTS POTENTIALLY LOWERING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS WHEN WE ARE
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR CENTRAL COAST, SANTA CRUZ
AREA, SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA AND HOLLISTER VALLEYS, AND FAR INLAND
NORTH BAY VALLEYS TO REACH OR EXCEED 70 DEGREES F. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AGAIN, SIMILAR TO TODAY, AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 120 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ON THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BRINING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THAT AREA. LOCALLY,
WE ARE FORECAST TO SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AS WEDNESDAY FOR DAYTIME
HIGHS. BY FRIDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, THUS COOLING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES AS A WEAK, DRY BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE BAY
AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. A REINFORCING TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ACT AS AN INSIDE SLIDER SETUP AS IN DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WOULD LEAD TO GUSTY
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS OUR REGION. HOWEVER, EXACT DETAILS REAMIN
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME AS THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY THIS
FAR OUT. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK AND KEEP UP-TO-DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECAST INFORMATION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 409 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
CURRENTLY VFR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT STS WHERE LOCALIZED OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO CLEAR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT FOG
WILL RETURN TONIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/4SM. THE MOST
LIKELY AIRPORTS TO RECEIVE FOG ARE STS, APC, AND LVK WITH SFO, OAK,
AND SJC HAVING SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES. GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME DRIER
AIR MIXING IN OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL ADVECT FOG FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE EAST BAY AND UP THE
DELTA. KEPT THE GENERAL TIMING THE SAME AS IN THE 18Z TAFS BUT ADDED
IN AT LEAST TEMPORARY FOG TO SJC AND SNS. GENERAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MORNING BUT MAY SEE FOG LINGERING SLIGHTLY
LONGER ACROSS THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL PUSH INTO THE SF BAY AND REACH
SFO. IF FOG DOES EXTEND TO SFO IT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 10Z-
17Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING AFTER THAT TIME. WINDS GENERALLY
STAY OFFSHORE BUT SHIFT BACK ONSHORE TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
AT SNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS STAY LIGHT AT MRY THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD BUT BREEZY DRAINAGE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SNS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS GENERALLY SWITCH MORE OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES THROUGH MID WEEK. PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK, BUILDING MODERATE TO ROUGH
SEAS.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 923 AM PST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM.
WHILE THE STATEMENT EXPIRES, THE SURF ZONE WILL BE ENERGETIC TODAY
SO STILL USE CAUTION IF YOU'RE VISITING BEACHES.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...MM
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