884
FXUS66 KMTR 261542
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
742 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY THIS
MORNING. THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA CRUZ AREA, APPROACH 70
DEGREES F IN THE NORTH BAY, AND 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION AS MODERATE, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING FOR
THE NORTH BAY AND EASY BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT W TO E ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. LOCATIONS WITH
FOG THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY JOIN THE REMAINDER OF OUR SERVICE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEGREES FOR THE INTERIOR). A MEANDERING SURFACE
HIGH OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO PULL WEAK FLOW OFFSHORE
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL COAST, SEEN WELL IN LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST BAY, HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THURSDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY, AND
WILL MAKE FOR A BANNER THANKSGIVING DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A PROGRESSIVE, UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR NORTH TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ITS BIGGEST
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA, A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
THERE'S BETTER CONSENSUS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO HELP
COMPLIMENT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 'INSIDE SLIDER' TYPE PATTERN WE MAY SEE SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST POTENT PORTION OF THE TROUGH ATTM
LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO BRING THE ELEVATED WINDS WINDS AND OTHER
IMPACTS WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THAT TYPE OF PATTERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
LIFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS, ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUD COVER HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRATUS LAYER. GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS HAVE MIXED OUT THE STRATUS LAYER AT APC, AND HAVE RETURNED TO
TERMINAL TO A VFR FORECAST AS A RESULT WITH A TEMPO FOR FOG SHOULD
THE WINDS DIMINISH. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, THERE IS LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL AT OAK, SJC, AND SNS. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT, WITH THE SPEEDS PICKING UP AND
THE WINDS GETTING A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE TURNING LIGHT AGAIN WITH CHANCES FOR FOG IN THE NORTH AND
EAST BAY VALLEYS TONIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...IFR-LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, DISSIPATING IN THE LATE MORNING AROUND 17-18Z. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS TURN TO A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BEFORE WINDS TURN LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MONITORING DEVELOPING STRATUS AT THE VERY
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE SALINAS VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO SNS DOWN
THE LINE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IMMINENT AND THE IMPACT TIME
HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT TO GENTLE
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL TURN MODERATELY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE RESUMING TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK, BUILDING
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...MM
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