661
FXUS66 KMTR 261757
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
957 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY THIS
MORNING. THUS, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WITH LESS
CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER
70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST AND SANTA CRUZ AREA, APPROACH 70
DEGREES F IN THE NORTH BAY, AND 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION AS MODERATE, DRY OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
RGASS
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING FOR
THE NORTH BAY AND EASY BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL PIVOT W TO E ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY. LOCATIONS WITH
FOG THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY JOIN THE REMAINDER OF OUR SERVICE
AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (5-10 DEGREES FOR THE INTERIOR). A MEANDERING SURFACE
HIGH OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS CONTINUES TO PULL WEAK FLOW OFFSHORE
FROM THE BAY AREA SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL COAST, SEEN WELL IN LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FIELDS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE
EAST BAY, HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 319 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THURSDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY, AND
WILL MAKE FOR A BANNER THANKSGIVING DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A PROGRESSIVE, UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WELL TO OUR NORTH TAKES AIM AT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH ITS BIGGEST
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA, A RELATIVELY WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT THAT
WILL BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
THERE'S BETTER CONSENSUS IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO HELP
COMPLIMENT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SUGGESTING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE 'INSIDE SLIDER' TYPE PATTERN WE MAY SEE SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST POTENT PORTION OF THE TROUGH ATTM
LOOKS TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO BRING THE ELEVATED WINDS WINDS AND OTHER
IMPACTS WE TYPICALLY SEE IN THAT TYPE OF PATTERN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL MORNING FOR A FEW TERMINALS AROUND THE BAY AREA,
ESPECIALLY N AND E BAY WITH DENSE FOG. OTHER TERMINALS REMAINS
VFR OR ONLY HAD SOME HAZE IMPACTS. EXPECTING A REPEAT AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LINGERING OFFSHORE FLOW PULLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY. USED A BLEND OF PROB GUIDANCE FOR FOG
AND WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. THANKFULLY, THE BIG THREE STAY VFR
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH SOME HAZE POSSIBLE.
VICINITY OF SFO...CHALLENGING START AS A FINGER OF CLOUDS DRIFTING
OVER THE TERMINAL. PUSHED CIGS INITIALLY THROUGH 1830, BUT TRENDS
SHOW CLEARING LIKELY EARLIER THAN THAT. WILL HAVE TO AMEND TAF.
VFR THERE AFTER WITH SOME MVFR HAZE TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO. CLOUDS CLEARING WITH SOME
SLANTWISE HAZE POSSIBLE.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 741 AM PST WED NOV 26 2025
GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE BAYS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE WEEK, BUILDING
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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