448
FXUS66 KMTR 270553
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
953 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 124 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR EAST BAY VALLEYS AND NORTHERN SAN
FRANCISCO BAY
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT TO ADD IN A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE EAST BAY VALLEYS AND NORTHERN SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
OBSERVATIONS, BOTH WEATHER STATIONS AND CAMERAS, ARE INDICATING
LOWERING VISIBILITIES. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD
THROUGH SUNRISE HOURS. HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE FAR EASTERN
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND THE DELTA. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER CRISP
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY.
DRIVE SAFE IS GOING OVER THE HILLS AND THROUGH THE WOODS. THERE
WILL BE A LOT OF US ON THE ROAD, AND WITH FOG, IT CAN BE A RECIPE
FOR ISSUES.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 124 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
SEEING LESS CLOUD COVER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS HOUR. THUS, A
GREATER POTENTIAL TO REACH OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST
AND SANTA CRUZ AREA, APPROACH 70 DEGREES F IN THE NORTH BAY, AND 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THIS IS AS MODERATE, DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALOFT.
TONIGHT, AGAIN EXPECTING LESS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS, EAST BAY VALLEYS, AND THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO CONTINUED
OFFSHORE WINDS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. OVERALL, WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF WHAT TODAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 124 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A WEAK, DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST COOLING TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES. A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL PERSIST
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OFFSHORE. THUS, LOOK FOR WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, DRY CONDITIONS, AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
FOG IS SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG MORE CONFINED
TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG REACHING STS AND LVK. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REACH APC AND
SJC TONIGHT. IF THE FOG DOES BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT THERE
MAY BE DECREASES IN VISIBILITY AT OAK AND POTENTIALLY SFO AS WELL.
FOG COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE WITH
PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME. A MORE TYPICAL
MARINE LAYER PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASES
IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHTS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT TO
SFO BUT IF IT DOES THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SE
DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AT SNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE EASING
BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY STAY OFFSHORE AT BOTH SITES BUT
MAY BECOME MORE NNW TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
DELTA. A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS THANKSGIVING THROUGH FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CAZ510.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60
NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...BFG
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