411
FXUS66 KMTR 271105
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
305 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM PST FOR THE NORTH BAY
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS
- PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY FOR AREA WIDE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A VERY PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS AND EAST
BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS (BOTH HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10AM PST THIS MORNING) MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO
START BASKING IN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AWAITING MOST
OF US FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS H50 HEIGHTS LATER TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS REESTABLISHED IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A RELATIVELY WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE
POLAR JET AMPLIFIES FURTHER WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON OUR AMBIENT
WEATHER OTHER THAN REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONSENSUS IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT FAR OUT HAS BEEN EVEN MORE ELUSIVE
RECENTLY THAN IT NORMALLY IS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
FOG IS SPREADING INTO THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY VALLEYS WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG MORE CONFINED
TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN FOG REACHING STS AND LVK. LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT FOG WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY REACH APC AND
SJC TONIGHT. IF THE FOG DOES BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE OVERNIGHT THERE
MAY BE DECREASES IN VISIBILITY AT OAK AND POTENTIALLY SFO AS WELL.
FOG COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE WITH
PERIODS OF MORE MODERATE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME. A MORE TYPICAL
MARINE LAYER PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASES
IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHTS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 03Z.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITY TO DROP
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL MAKE IT TO
SFO BUT IF IT DOES THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE BETWEEN 10Z-16Z.
WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS TO RETURN TOMORROW EVENING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MODERATE SE
DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOP AT SNS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE EASING
BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY STAY OFFSHORE AT BOTH SITES BUT
MAY BECOME MORE NNW TO NW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PST WED NOV 26 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST WILL KEEP GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST
DELTA. A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS THANKSGIVING THROUGH FRIDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ506-510.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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