327
FXUS66 KMTR 271126 CCA
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
326 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM PST FOR THE NORTH BAY
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND EAST BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS
- PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY AREA WIDE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A VERY PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS AND EAST
BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS (BOTH HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10AM PST THIS MORNING) MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO
START BASKING IN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AWAITING MOST
OF US FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
OUR NORTH WEAKENS H50 HEIGHTS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS REESTABLISHED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A RELATIVELY WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE
POLAR JET AMPLIFIES FURTHER WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON OUR AMBIENT
WEATHER OTHER THAN REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONSENSUS IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT FAR OUT HAS BEEN EVEN MORE ELUSIVE
RECENTLY THAN IT NORMALLY IS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 324 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
LIFR-VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST BAY
VALLEYS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF FURTHER IMPACTS TO THE MAIN BAY AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. STRATUS RETREATS TO THE
CENTRAL VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE FAR INTERIOR EAST BAY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW CLOSER TO THE COAST AND
CONTINUING OFFSHORE WINDS INLAND. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF
STRATUS RETURNING TO THE BAY AREA VALLEYS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, HIGHEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A STRATUS DECK FORMING AROUND
SJC AND MIGRATING NORTHWEST TOWARDS SFO AND OAK.
VICINITY OF SFO... MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF LIFE STRATUS FLOWING IN FROM THE DELTA THROUGH THE
MORNING. HIGH CLOUD COVER IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO GAUGE HOW CLOSE
THE STRATUS IS TO THE TERMINAL RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
OF ANY POTENTIAL STRATUS PUSH, BUT NOT EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO
LINGER PAST 18Z. MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETURNING TO A LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT, WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE
(20-30% PROBABILITY) THAT LIFR STRATUS IMPACTS THE TERMINAL TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30-40%
PROBABILITY) THAT STRATUS IMPACTS THE APPROACH PATH, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY. OTHERWISE SIMILAR
TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER OBSCURING ANY POSSIBLE
STRATUS LAYER OVER THE SOUTHERN SALINAS VALLEY. LIGHT TO GENTLE
DRAINAGE WINDS WILL TURN MODERATELY ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE RESUMING TONIGHT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
PICKING UP ON STRATUS POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD FALL
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WEST DELTA AND MAY EXTEND INTO
THE SAN PABLO BAY, EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE. MODERATE
TO FRESH NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY AND FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY BUT PICK UP TO A MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTH BREEZE ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR CAZ506-510.
PZ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR SF BAY N OF
BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...DIALH
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