351
FXUS66 KMTR 271816
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1016 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY AREA WIDE
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SET IN FOR FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
JUST LIKE YESTERDAY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLY AS
VISIBILITIES IMPROVED ACROSS THE N AND E BAY. HOWEVER, STILLS
SEEING SOME FOG (1-4 MILES), JUST NOT DENSE TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD CLOUDS BLANKET THE N AND E BAY
VALLEYS. IT WILL BE A SLOW CLEAR OUT FOR THOSE AREAS GIVEN LACK OF
LOW LEVEL MIXING. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE FORECAST AREA FILTERED
SUNSHINE WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. OUTSIDE OF
DEALING WITH CLOUDS AND FOG, NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A VERY PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY
ACROSS OUR AREA. PORTIONS OF THE NORTH BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS AND EAST
BAY INTERIOR VALLEYS (BOTH HAVE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10AM PST THIS MORNING) MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING TO
START BASKING IN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS AWAITING MOST
OF US FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO
OUR NORTH WEAKENS H50 HEIGHTS LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGING IS REESTABLISHED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 303 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A RELATIVELY WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
DISTURBANCE TRACKING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL COOL OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY, THE
POLAR JET AMPLIFIES FURTHER WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ON OUR AMBIENT
WEATHER OTHER THAN REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
UNSETTLED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONSENSUS IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE THAT FAR OUT HAS BEEN EVEN MORE ELUSIVE
RECENTLY THAN IT NORMALLY IS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
ANOTHER CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH SLOW CLEARING OF
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE N AND E BAY. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER PESKY
FINGER OF CLOUDS IMPACTS SFO WITH A SLOW CLEARING THERE TOO. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE N AND E BAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR (HAZE/BR). FOR TONIGHT, TOOK A
BLEND OF HRRR LO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR TO MVFR MOST AREAS. OVERALL CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF SFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1830-19Z THEN VFR. WILL BRING
IFR CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT WITH A 60-70% CONF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO WITH CIGS OVER THE APPROACH
THROUGH 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. AS SUCH, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LASTING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY BUT PICK UP TO
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH BREEZE ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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