023
FXUS66 KMTR 272247
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
247 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- WARM TEMPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE, TULE FOG KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER FURTHER NORTH.
- PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN DAY-TO-DAY)
- NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. NEED TO LOOK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH FOR NEXT CHANCE.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
~GOBBLE GOBBLE~
SUN FOR MOST AND REALLY FRUSTRATING STRATUS AND TULE FOG FOR A FEW
OTHERS. FORECAST TODAY REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, EXCEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH BAY AND INLAND EAST BAY WHERE I'VE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS.
NOTABLE PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA, NAPA, AND LIVERMORE HAVE BARELY
BROKEN 50 DEGREES AS OF 1-2PM. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS A GOOD BET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
PROMOTES DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE CONTINENTAL US. THIS
PATTERN RESULTS IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, WHICH WILL
MOSTLY KEEP TEMPS MILD AND SKIES MOSTLY DRY. ON THAT NOTE, THERE
IS NO PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
ANOTHER CHALLENGING MORNING FOR AVIATION WITH SLOW CLEARING OF
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE N AND E BAY. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER PESKY
FINGER OF CLOUDS IMPACTS SFO WITH A SLOW CLEARING THERE TOO. IFR
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER FOR THE N AND E BAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER TERMINALS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR (HAZE/BR). FOR TONIGHT, TOOK A
BLEND OF HRRR LO CLOUDS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR TO MVFR MOST AREAS. OVERALL CONF IS
LOW TO MEDIUM.
VICINITY OF SFO...IFR CIGS THROUGH 1830-19Z THEN VFR. WILL BRING
IFR CIGS BACK LATE TONIGHT WITH A 60-70% CONF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO WITH CIGS OVER THE APPROACH
THROUGH 19Z.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... VFR.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1003 AM PST THU NOV 27 2025
A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
TODAY. AS SUCH, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
LASTING INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY BUT PICK UP TO
A MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH BREEZE ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY
FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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