151
FXUS66 KMTR 280421
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
821 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- WARM TEMPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE, TULE FOG KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER FURTHER NORTH.
- PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN DAY-TO-DAY)
- NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. NEED TO LOOK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH FOR NEXT CHANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE ON TONIGHT. FOG IS CREEPING INTO THE EAST BAY
AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS, BUT THE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY COULD CAUSE
SOME INTERRUPTIONS IN FOG FORMATION FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FOG CHANCES REMAIN STRONG FOR THOSE AREAS,
AND ANY INTERRUPTIONS WILL BE SHOT LIVED.
-MURDOCK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
~GOBBLE GOBBLE~
SUN FOR MOST AND REALLY FRUSTRATING STRATUS AND TULE FOG FOR A FEW
OTHERS. FORECAST TODAY REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, EXCEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH BAY AND INLAND EAST BAY WHERE I'VE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS.
NOTABLE PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA, NAPA, AND LIVERMORE HAVE BARELY
BROKEN 50 DEGREES AS OF 1-2PM. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS A GOOD BET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
PROMOTES DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE CONTINENTAL US. THIS
PATTERN RESULTS IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, WHICH WILL
MOSTLY KEEP TEMPS MILD AND SKIES MOSTLY DRY. ON THAT NOTE, THERE
IS NO PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
CURRENTLY VFR WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO RETURN TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS REACHING STS, APC, AND LVK
TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILING
HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE BAY AREA. THE MARINE LAYER LOOKS
TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 1200 FT TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING IN SOME STRATUS
COVERAGE ALONG THE COASTLINE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT STRATUS WILL
REACH HAF BUT SOME MAY REACH MRY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
WINDS GENERALLY STAY LIGHT AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
CURRENT FOG/STRATUS SETUP, CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WITH MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT LEAST TEMPORARILY
TOMORROW MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AT MRY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS STRATUS RETURNS ALONG THE COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS WITH MODELS KEEPING THE
STRATUS DIRECTLY ALONG THE COASTLINE/AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT PINOS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
MIDWEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING DUE TO INCOMING LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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