065
FXUS66 KMTR 280548
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
948 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
- WARM TEMPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF SAN JOSE, TULE FOG KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER FURTHER NORTH.
- PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN DAY-TO-DAY)
- NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST. NEED TO LOOK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH FOR NEXT CHANCE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
NOT MUCH TO UPDATE ON TONIGHT. FOG IS CREEPING INTO THE EAST BAY
AND NORTH BAY VALLEYS, BUT THE TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATIONS FROM HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY COULD CAUSE
SOME INTERRUPTIONS IN FOG FORMATION FURTHER INTO THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FOG CHANCES REMAIN STRONG FOR THOSE AREAS,
AND ANY INTERRUPTIONS WILL BE SHOT LIVED.
-MURDOCK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
~GOBBLE GOBBLE~
SUN FOR MOST AND REALLY FRUSTRATING STRATUS AND TULE FOG FOR A FEW
OTHERS. FORECAST TODAY REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK, EXCEPT
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH BAY AND INLAND EAST BAY WHERE I'VE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS.
NOTABLE PLACES LIKE SANTA ROSA, NAPA, AND LIVERMORE HAVE BARELY
BROKEN 50 DEGREES AS OF 1-2PM. THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1235 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
THE PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS A GOOD BET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A
VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND
PROMOTES DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING INTO THE CONTINENTAL US. THIS
PATTERN RESULTS IN LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, WHICH WILL
MOSTLY KEEP TEMPS MILD AND SKIES MOSTLY DRY. ON THAT NOTE, THERE
IS NO PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SATELLITE AND CAMERAS SHOW A MORE EXPANSIVE FOG/STRATUS BANK MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SO FAR
TONIGHT (IFR COMPARED TO LIFR) BUT SHOULD DROP AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT STS,
APC, AND LVK WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECREASES IN VISIBILITY AT THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AIRPORTS. GOING OFF OF PERSISTENCE, FOG AND STRATUS
ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR
CLEARING TIMES FOR TOMORROW. WINDS GENERALLY STAY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD BUT BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME. FOG AND
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO REACH SFO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE
EXPANSIVE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST - THIS IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY IMPACT SFO OVERNIGHT. BUMPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM 12Z TO 10Z GIVEN THE FASTER EXPANSION OF
FOG THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY, OTHERWISE, WINDS STAY
OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTLINE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY'LL EXTEND INLAND AND REACH
MRY/SNS. IF THEY DID EXTEND INLAND, THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR MVFR
CIGS WOULD BE BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT PINOS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
MIDWEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING DUE TO INCOMING LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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