158
FXUS66 KMTR 280902
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
102 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 101 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
- PATTERN CHANGE BEINGS MILDER TEMPERATURES TODAY
- STRATUS MIXES OUT THROUGH THE MORNING, LINGERING AT THE COAST
AND IN THE FAR INTERIOR EAST BAY
- NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 101 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE BAY AREA,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. STRATUS DECKS ARE ALSO VISIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
BAY VALLEYS AND PARTS OF EASTERN SAN MATEO COUNTY AND THE SANTA
CLARA VALLEY. THE STRATUS DECKS WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE
AND FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTERWARD, WITH SOME AREAS REMAINING
SOCKED IN THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL DISRUPTION OF THE
PASSING FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AWAY
THIS MORNING. IN THE EVENT THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG DOES FORM, DRIVERS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND LEAVE EXTRA SPACE
BETWEEN THEM AND THE CAR IN FRONT.
TODAY MARKS A TRANSITION PERIOD BETWEEN THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE
THAT HAS BROUGHT US SEASONALLY WARM WEATHER THESE LAST FEW DAYS AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
WILL PROMOTE DOWNSTREAMS TROUGHS INTO THE CONTIGUOUS 48 STATES. THE
DAYTIME SHOULD FEATURE SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST PEOPLE, WITH LINGERING
STRATUS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF EASTERN CONTRA COSTA AND ALAMEDA
COUNTIES CONNECTED TO THE CENTRAL VALLEY, IN ADDITION TO WESTERN
PARTS OF SAN FRANCISCO AND SAN MATEO COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE BAY AREA, THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS INLAND PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL COAST, AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND RIDGELINES. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IF STRATUS LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS
A PLACE.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 101 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2025
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
IT MIGHT BE THE DAY AFTER THANKSGIVING BUT THE WEATHER PATTERN MIGHT
MAKE SOME PEOPLE RECALL GROUNDHOG DAY. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF
TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUT THESE WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TOO FAR EAST TO GIVE US ANY SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS. FOR OUR
REGION, THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD FEATURE A RATHER PERSISTENT FORECAST
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOWS, SEASONALLY MILD TEMPERATURES, AND DRY AND
CLEAR SKIES, WHICH SHOULD HELP EAT AWAY AT THE POOL OF STRATUS THAT
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY.
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15% PROBABILITY AT MOST) OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TOWRADS THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK IF ONE OF THE
TROUGHS DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DEEPENS INTO A CUTOFF
LOW THAT RETROGRADES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MERGES WITH A
SECOND CUTOFF LOW COMING IN OFF THE COAST, BUT THE PROBABILITIES ARE
SO LOW AND THE NUANCES NUMEROUS ENOUGH THAT THE FORECAST REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. CPC OUTLOOKS FOR DECEMBER 5 TO 11 FEATURES A
SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS PRECIPITATION TOTALS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR
THE CENTRAL COAST, BUT THE KEY WORD HERE IS SLIGHT WITH THE CPC
PUTTING THE PROBABILITIES AROUND 33-40%. FOR CONTEXT, THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTAL FOR SALINAS AIRPORT FOR THAT PERIOD COMES IN
AT JUST UNDER HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
SATELLITE AND CAMERAS SHOW A MORE EXPANSIVE FOG/STRATUS BANK MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SO FAR
TONIGHT (IFR COMPARED TO LIFR) BUT SHOULD DROP AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG AT STS,
APC, AND LVK WITH POTENTIAL FOR DECREASES IN VISIBILITY AT THE REST
OF THE BAY AREA AIRPORTS. GOING OFF OF PERSISTENCE, FOG AND STRATUS
ARE LIKELY TO CLEAR BETWEEN 18Z-20Z WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING SIMILAR
CLEARING TIMES FOR TOMORROW. WINDS GENERALLY STAY OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD BUT BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME. FOG AND
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN JUST AFTER THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS TO REACH SFO
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE
EXPANSIVE FOG/STRATUS DECK THAN WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST - THIS IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY IMPACT SFO OVERNIGHT. BUMPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIMING OF
LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM 12Z TO 10Z GIVEN THE FASTER EXPANSION OF
FOG THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS RETURN DURING THE DAY, OTHERWISE, WINDS STAY
OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTLINE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY'LL EXTEND INLAND AND REACH
MRY/SNS. IF THEY DID EXTEND INLAND, THE MOST LIKELY TIMES FOR MVFR
CIGS WOULD BE BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 816 PM PST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. LOCALIZED FRESH
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT PINOS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN
MIDWEEK AS A CUT-OFF LOW MOVES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING DUE TO INCOMING LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...DIALH
LONG TERM....DIALH
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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