879
FXUS66 KMTR 030511
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
911 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE WILL BRING
SUBSTANTIAL TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- DAILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
RADAR RETURNS SHOW WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ANOTHER BAND LURKING OFFSHORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE WATER
VAPOR BRAND DEPICTS A DRY SLOT HEADING INTO THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST AT THE TIME OF WRITING. THIS HAS INFLUENCED LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
INCOMING RAIN TO NOT BE AS INTENSE OVERNIGHT. WHETHER THIS TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING MAY VERY WELL DEPEND ON HOW A
PAIR OF LOWS AROUND 400 TO 500 MILES OFF THE COAST OF SONOMA
COUNTY AND OREGON INTERACT, WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND BOTH THE LOWS. THE OVERNIGHT CREW
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
ON ANOTHER NOTE, USGS RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS IN THE BAY AREA ARE
REPORTING THAT SOILS ARE SATURATED, OR CLOSE TO REACHING
SATURATION, MEANING THAT SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IF MORE RAIN FALLS THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED REGIONS.
DIALH
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
IT HAS BEEN FAIRLY QUITE LATE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM THAT IS DUE TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
(LOCALLY STRONGER IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SURFACE BASED CAPE
REACHES UP TO 250 J/KG, MOST NOTABILITY AROUND THE NORTH BAY.
ALONG WITH THIS, AS THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION IT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY A COLDER
AIRMASS DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE EARLIER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS IS WHEN FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST 250-750 J/KG
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE OVER
THE NORTH BAY WERE WE ARE EXPECTED THE HIGHER END OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED VALUES WILL BE PLACED LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
EVENING. THUS, CANNOT RULE OUT LANDFALLING WATER SPOUTS ACROSS
THIS REGION. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH A GENERAL MENTION FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BREAKS BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS, WE DON'T CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
HOWEVER, ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATER SPOUTS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, YET NOT NEARLY AS WET AS LATE THIS WEEK AND
INTO TO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE MAKING THINGS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL TREND DRIER AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND (JANUARY 10-11). THIS IS ALSO BEING CAPTURED BY THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE NEXT
FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS-ORGANIZED LINES OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AIRSPACE
ABOVE THE MARINE ENVIRONMENT WILL SEE THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS,
BUT SOME WILL MAKE THEIR WAY OVER LAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES REDUCING ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT
REBUILDING INTO THAT AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE MONTEREY BAY. WINDS
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REDUCE AND
BECOME MUCH LESS GUSTY. CLOUD COVER MOSTLY STICKS TO THE MID-LEVELS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS BEING PERIODS OF MVFR-LEVEL
CLOUDS IN THE NORTH BAY, SJC, HAF,AND AT MRY.
VICINITY OF SFO...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE INCREASING WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30
KTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING CAUSING REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES FROM THE
MODERATE TO, AT TIMES, ELEVATED RAIN RATES. RAIN TURNS TO SPOTTIER
SHOWERS IN THE LATE NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS POSSIBLE.
RAIN CHANCES REDUCE IN THE LATE MORNING, BUT REBUILD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS CUT OFF.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
WINDS. VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER AS THESE SHOWERS COME THROUGH THE
AREA, WITH CIGS FALLING TO MVFR LEVELS AT MRY INTO THE NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES AND WINDS REDUCE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER CHANCES REBUILD AGAIN INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 846 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH LOCALIZED STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND ALONG
THE BIG SUR COAST. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SATURDAY WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FEET THIS WEEKEND BEFORE ABATING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1218 PM PST FRI JAN 2 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES
(KING TIDES) WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF THE FULL MOON ON 1/3, LUNAR PERIGEE ON 1/1, AND
PERIHELION ON 1/3. IN OTHER WORDS THE EARTH, SUN AND MOON ARE LINED
UP AND CLOSE TO EACH OTHER. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE, THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS, GENERATING SOME STORM SURGE, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL BRING MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR SHORELINES AND TIDAL
WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY, THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE RECORDED 2.26 FT OF
INUNDATION. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 2.5 FT
ABOVE NORMAL AT 10:26 AM SATURDAY AND 1.9 FT ABOVE NORMAL AT 11:18
AM SUNDAY. THESE PREDICTIONS INCLUDE UP TO 1.3 FEET OF STORM
SURGE THAT WILL ENHANCE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND FLOODING THREAT.
A REASONABLE WORSE CASE SCENARIO (10% EXCEEDANCE CHANCE) IS 2.7
FT OF INUNDATION ON SATURDAY. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 2.8 FT FROM
1/27/1983. 2.5 FT HASN'T BEEN REACHED SINCE 1998. HIGH TIDE VARIES
UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND
THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ006-502>505-509-512-
514>518-528>530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
CAZ006-506-508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ505-509-529-
530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR MRY BAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-
10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-
10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-
60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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