576
FXUS66 KMTR 032119
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
119 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 117 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
- HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE WILL BRING
SUBSTANTIAL TIDAL FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
- DAILY RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 117 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
IT HAS BEEN A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY FOR OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON! HOWEVER, WE
HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF SHALLOW LANDSLIDES IN THE NORTH BAY
DUE TO SATURATED SOILS AS RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE AT TIMES ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS OF COASTAL
FLOODING DUE TO THE KING TIDES. THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE
REACHED 2.56 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL AT AROUND 10:26 AM SATURDAY
MORNING, THUS VERIFYING THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO AND SAN PABLO BAYS.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH BAY WHERE UP TO 700
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IF
WE CAN MANAGE TO FIND A TRIGGERING MECHANISM TO TAP INTO THIS
INSTABILITY, THERE WOULD BE A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE LAND AS OF THIS WRITING. ELSEWHERE, EXPECTING PASSING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE SPC HAS A GENERAL MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH FORECAST SURFACE BASED
CAPE OF UP TO 400 J/KG. WHILE THE THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING
CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW, THE USGS IS REPORTING SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAY AREA. AS SUCH, ANY HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW
LANDSLIDES. THIS ALSO WOULD RESULT IN RAPID RISES OF SMALL
CREEKS/STREAMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 117 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. A NEWLY DEVELOPED
MID/UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN THE BROADER
TROUGH MAY VERY WELL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE AND NOT PROVIDE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. THIS IS BASED OFF OF SOME OF THE
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS). HOWEVER, THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL
SHOW ANOTHER AROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOVING
ONSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE CUT OFF LOW SLIDES SOUTH JUST OFF OF THE
BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. WE ARE ALSO LEANING ON THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THIS AND STILL ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER AROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. COOL, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK BRINING A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS. COLDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LOOKING
MORE LIKELY FOR LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ARE RANGING FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY IN INTENSITY WITH SHARP
DROPS IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED IF A MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWER PASSES
DIRECTLY OVER AN AIRPORT. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT. EXPECTING CEILINGS TO LARGELY BE ON
THE VFR-MVFR BORDER BUT TEMPORARY DROPS LOWER ARE POSSIBLE DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RAIN BAND. GUSTS PEAK BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS
THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THIS EVENING. NOT ANTICIPATING WINDS
TO BE AS GUSTY TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT BAND OF RAIN BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING.
VICINITY OF SFO...SCATTERED MODERATE INTENSITY SHOWERS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BAY AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TEMPORARILY DROP
VISIBILITIES AND CEILING HEIGHTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT RAIN BAND
ARRIVES. GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING
BEFORE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NOT
ANTICIPATING GUSTS TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT BUT CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE
MONTEREY PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT RAIN RETURNS TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT RAIN BAND APPROACHES THE REGION. CEILINGS LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN BEGINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO 4-5SM. GUSTS LOOK TO BE LOWER TONIGHT BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUST AS THE RAIN BAND MOVES
IN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 904 AM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
AN INCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALE FORCE WINDS LINGER
OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS STRONGER SHOWERS REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FEET THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE ABATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 117 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY,
SAN PABLO BAY, PACIFIC COAST, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES (KING TIDES) WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE FULL MOON ON 1/3,
LUNAR PERIGEE ON 1/1, AND PERIHELION ON 1/3. IN OTHER WORDS THE
EARTH, SUN AND MOON ARE LINED UP AND CLOSE TO EACH OTHER. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, THERE ARE SEVERAL SYSTEM
SET TO BRING MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS, GENERATING SOME STORM
SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL BRING MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR SHORELINES
AND TIDAL WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY, THE SAN FRANCISCO TIDAL GAUGE RECORDED 2.56 FT OF
INUNDATION. THE ALL TIME RECORD IS 2.98 FT FROM 1/27/1983. TODAY'S
HIGH TIDE WOULD RANK 4TH BEHIND FEBRUARY 6, 1998 WHEN THE GAUGE
REPORTED 2.67 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. LOOKING AHEAD, HIGH TIDE IS
EXPECTED TO BE 1.9 FT ABOVE NORMAL AT 11:18 AM SUNDAY. THESE
PREDICTIONS INCLUDE UP TO 1 FOOT OF STORM SURGE THAT WILL ENHANCE
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND FLOODING THREAT. HIGH TIDE VARIES UP TO
90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND THROUGH
THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY. LARGE SWELL WILL
IMPACT THE PACIFIC BEACHES, GENERATING LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO
20 FEET, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AND SNEAKER WAVES. INEXPERIENCED
SWIMMERS SHOULD AVOID THE WATER. NOBODY SHOULD CLIMB THE COASTAL
ROCKS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ006-505-509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ505-509-529-
530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST SUNDAY FOR SF BAY N OF BAY
BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST SUNDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM-PT PINOS
TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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