644
FXUS66 KMTR 042229
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
229 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 129 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
- RAIN COMING TO AN END TODAY, MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIDWEEK, THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FAIR WEATHER THE WRAP UP THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
QUITE THE EPISODE OF RAIN THIS MORNING HERE AT NWS MTR. A FEW
AREAS FROM THE MONTEREY PENINSULA TO HOLLISTER REPORTED 1-2 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS MORNING WITH MONTEREY AIRPORT COMING IN AT 2.15"
SINCE MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE AROUND THE BAY AREA REPORTS RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.5-1" DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE NORTH TO SOUTH AND IN
RELATION TO RAIN SHADOWING TERRAIN. SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SF BAY ARE MOVING OUT THIS AFTERNOON, AND MOST
PEOPLE SHOULD SEE THE SUN AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MOVING ON TO TOMORROW, WE'RE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINNING IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FOR THE NORTH BAY AND BAY
AREA, THEN THE MONTEREY BAY AND CENTRAL COAST AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
DOES SEEM TO BE A MORE PROGRESSIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AS OPPOSED TO
THE TRAINING SHOWERS THAT WE HAD THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH SOILS
AT OR NEAR SATURATION IN SOME AREAS, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL ARISE
EASILY. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD, DAMAGING WINDS WITH
TOMORROW'S SYSTEM, BUT AS MENTIONED REGARDING THE STATE OF THE
SOIL, TREES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO FALL UNDER LESSER MAGNITUDE
WINDS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE REQUIRED. AFTER THE MAIN BAND OF
MORNING RAINFALL, WE'LL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE WATERS. THE SHOWERS AT THIS POINT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
UNPROBLEMATIC OUTSIDE OF ONE OR TWO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS THAT
MAY EXACERBATE ALREADY EXISTING FLOODING IMPACTS. IN TERMS OF
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS OVER THE WATERS,
BUT DON'T REALLY SEE THE THREAT REALLY MAKING IT VERY FAR ONTO
LAND. TO THAT POINT, THE WIND FIELD IS NEARLY UNIFORM UP TO ALMOST
500 MB, SO THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, SHEAR TO SUPPORT
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. THE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE ISOLATED
NUISANCE FLOODING AND SHALLOW LANDSLIDES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 129 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
CONDITIONS DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. BEYOND THIS AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK THE STORY TURNS TO COLD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS, ALBEIT CHILLY, AFTERNOONS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS STRONGLY SUPPORTS BROAD, HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING IN THE LONG TERM. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNINGS WITH THE
PEAK COLD BEING FRIDAY MORNING (THURSDAY NIGHT) WHERE WIDESPREAD
30S ARE LIKELY INLAND WITH MID-TO-LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
WITH LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN RATES ARE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH LOCALIZED SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS ARE
BREEZY BUT NOT AS GUSTY AS YESTERDAY WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED CIG HEIGHTS TO RISE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN AIMS AT THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO DROP BELOW WHAT IS LISTED IN THE TAF IF
A PARTICULARLY STRONG SHOWER MOVES OVER THE AIRPORT.
VICINITY OF SFO...BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES FURTHER SOUTH. A
SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS STAYING ON THE BORDER OF MVFR-VFR. EXPECT TEMPORARY DROPS
IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHTS IF A STRONGER SHOWER MOVES OVER
SFO.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR. THE MAIN RAIN BAND IS TRAINING OVER
THE MONTEREY PENINSULA WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED
THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN RETURNS
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL RISE
ABOVE 3000 FT LATE TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SECOND RAIN BAND
REACHES MRY AND SNS AROUND 14/15Z THAT CIGS WILL LOWER BELOW 3000 FT
AGAIN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1001 AM PST SUN JAN 4 2026
RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. HAZARDOUS
SEAS BETWEEN 12 TO 16 FEET CONTINUE FOR SMALLER CRAFT BEFORE WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD AGAIN DURING THE LATE WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 117 PM PST SAT JAN 3 2026
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY,
SAN PABLO BAY, PACIFIC COAST, AND MONTEREY BAY THROUGH 2 PM SUNDAY
DUE TO PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES (KING TIDES) AND UP TO 1 FOOT OF
STORM SURGE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL BRING MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TO THE LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR SHORELINES
AND TIDAL WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE 1.9 FT ABOVE NORMAL AT 11:18 AM
SUNDAY. THESE PREDICTIONS INCLUDE UP TO 1 FOOT OF STORM SURGE THAT
WILL ENHANCE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AND FLOODING THREAT. HIGH TIDE
VARIES UP TO 90 MINUTES EARLIER OR LATER ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
AND THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY, RESPECTIVELY.
A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY THROUGH 10 PM. LARGE
SWELL WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC BEACHES, GENERATING LARGE BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 20 FEET, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AND SNEAKER WAVES.
INEXPERIENCED SWIMMERS SHOULD AVOID THE WATER. NOBODY SHOULD CLIMB
THE COASTAL ROCKS. NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ006-
505-509-529-530.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ006-506-508.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ505-
509-529-530.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PST MONDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM PST MONDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM PST MONDAY FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...KENNEDY
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