675
FXUS66 KMTR 052308
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
308 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
- RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA
REGIONS, MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG CENTRAL COAST GOING INTO TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT, DRY TOMORROW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY
LIGHT, BRIEF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AM. OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT; WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S, LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAINFALL
EXTENDING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE BAY AREA WHERE THE LINE WILL SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTH
TO NORTH ORIENTATION. THIS WILL PROMOTE WHAT WILL APPEAR TO BE A
STALLING BEHAVIOR WHERE THE RAINFALL WILL "TRAIN" OVER AREAS OF
THE SF PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE AN
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS WHERE THE VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESS HAS
BEEN OCCURING SINCE THE LATE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY
17. THIS PRECURSOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY THE HEAVIER RAIN FALL ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MAY POSE A BIGGER RISK FOR FLOODING AND SHALLOW
LANDSLIDES. AFTER SUNSET, THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL START TO IMPACT
THE MONTEREY AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ISOLATED INCREASED FLOODING AND SHALLOW LANDSLIDE
THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS OF INTEREST (SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND MONTEREY/CARMEL AREAS)
COULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK 1-2" OVER A THREE HOUR PERIOD DEPENDING ON
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TRACKS WITHIN THE BAND OF
MOISTURE.
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THINGS START TO TAPER OFF AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD, HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ONLY NOTABLE MENTION GOING FORWARD AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. THE PEAK OF THE COLD TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 947 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
MVFR-VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT TIMES
OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH BAY
AND BAY AREA. LOWER PROBABILITY FOR THE MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS.
DRIER CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS RETURN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
VICINITY OF SFO...MVFR-VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT TIMES OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS, IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS WELL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IF AN HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER
THE TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EASING OVERNIGHT AND MORESO INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN
RAIN, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AND
THE MONTEREY BAY TODAY TO THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN MODERATE TO ROUGH TODAY TO THIS EVENING. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
ONE LAST DAY OF COASTAL FLOODING FROM KING TIDES AND STORM SURGE.
WHILE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HIGH TIDE WILL STILL BE
ROUGHLY 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING MINOR IMPACTS TO LOW-LYING
AREAS NEAR SHORELINES AND TIDAL WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM TODAY FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND SAN PABLO BAY. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED IN SAN
FRANCISCO AT 12:08 PM MONDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING VARIES UP TO 90
MINUTES LATER THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ006-
506-508.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM-SF BAY N
OF BAY BRIDGE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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