095
FXUS66 KMTR 060019
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
419 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
- RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTH BAY AND BAY AREA
REGIONS, MORE UNCERTAIN ALONG CENTRAL COAST GOING INTO TONIGHT.
- CONDITIONS IMPROVE TONIGHT, DRY TOMORROW. SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY
LIGHT, BRIEF SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AM. OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT; WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S, LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT-TO-MODERATE RAINFALL
EXTENDING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE BAY AREA WHERE THE LINE WILL SHIFT MORE TO A SOUTH
TO NORTH ORIENTATION. THIS WILL PROMOTE WHAT WILL APPEAR TO BE A
STALLING BEHAVIOR WHERE THE RAINFALL WILL "TRAIN" OVER AREAS OF
THE SF PENINSULA INTO THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE AN
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE BAY AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING COMMUTE. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE
SANTA CRUZ MTNS WHERE THE VERY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESS HAS
BEEN OCCURING SINCE THE LATE MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HWY
17. THIS PRECURSOR RAIN FOLLOWED BY THE HEAVIER RAIN FALL ALONG
THE COLD FRONT MAY POSE A BIGGER RISK FOR FLOODING AND SHALLOW
LANDSLIDES. AFTER SUNSET, THIS BAND OF RAIN WILL START TO IMPACT
THE MONTEREY AREA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST WHERE THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER ISOLATED INCREASED FLOODING AND SHALLOW LANDSLIDE
THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BOTH OF THESE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS OF INTEREST (SANTA CRUZ MTNS AND MONTEREY/CARMEL AREAS)
COULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK 1-2" OVER A THREE HOUR PERIOD DEPENDING ON
WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP TRACKS WITHIN THE BAND OF
MOISTURE.
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THINGS START TO TAPER OFF AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 210 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
BEYOND TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A BROAD, HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE
ONLY NOTABLE MENTION GOING FORWARD AFTER TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT. THE PEAK OF THE COLD TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 418 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
RAIN WILL SLOWLY COME TO A HALT TONIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY VARY FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO IFR OR LOWER. ONCE THE RAIN COMES TO AN END, CIGS
MAY TAKE A BIT LONGER TO IMPROVE, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH BAY
AND AT KSTS. OTHERWISE, AS RAIN COMES TO AN END, VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN AND WINDS GRADUALLY SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EITHER LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
VICINITY OF SFO...RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SHOULD A STRONGER SHOWER OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POP UP, BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BASED ON NEIGHBORING OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUIDANCE DOESN'T SUPPORT A SHIFT IN THE WINDS
UNTIL AROUND 12Z OR SO WHEN WE COULD START SEEING A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURNING AFTER 0Z.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...RAIN IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE REGION
TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. CIGS AND VIS MAY DROP AT
TIMES TO MVFR OR IFR DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY CLEARING AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 947 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL RESULT IN
RAIN, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCREASING SOUTH WINDS
WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS OVER THE INNER COASTAL WATERS AND
THE MONTEREY BAY TODAY TO THIS EVENING. WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT
WHILE SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN MODERATE TO ROUGH TODAY TO THIS EVENING. LONG PERIOD
NORTHWESTERLY SWELL RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM PST MON JAN 5 2026
ONE LAST DAY OF COASTAL FLOODING FROM KING TIDES AND STORM SURGE.
WHILE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HIGH TIDE WILL STILL BE
ROUGHLY 1.2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, BRINGING MINOR IMPACTS TO LOW-LYING
AREAS NEAR SHORELINES AND TIDAL WATERWAYS DURING HIGH TIDE. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM TODAY FOR THE SAN
FRANCISCO BAY AND SAN PABLO BAY. HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED IN SAN
FRANCISCO AT 12:08 PM MONDAY. HIGH TIDE TIMING VARIES UP TO 90
MINUTES LATER THROUGH THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR MRY BAY-
PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60
NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST TUESDAY FOR PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...KR
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