134
FXUS66 KMTR 060811
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1211 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
- COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
RESPONSIBLE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SLINKS SOUTH. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN DRIVING AS RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUCH AS WET ROADWAYS, PONDING
OF WATER, AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN AREAS
AS WELL AS FLASHY CREEKS/STREAMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THE MAIN
PROBLEM AREA IS IN THE NORTH BAY IN SONOMA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF MARK WEST CREEK NEAR MIRABEL HEIGHTS.
IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS, REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE SLOW EXIT OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A TROUGHY
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM DOOR OPEN AND
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO SKIRT THE REGION THEN. FORTUNATELY FROM A
HYDROLOGIC STANDPOINT, THIS WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
WITH GLOOMY CONDITIONS AND DRIZZLE A MORE LIKELY RESULT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, RESULTING IN WHAT I LIKE TO CALL A HIGH AND DRY PATTERN. CALM
AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOST
OF THE INTERIOR WITHIN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP RAISE THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. IT WILL STILL BE COLD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT WON'T BE AS COLD OR ENCOMPASSING AS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
THE BAND OF RAIN CURRENTLY COMING THROUGH THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL
COAST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY BRINGING LOW-END VFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION, WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARDS AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN FRONT OF AND
WITHIN THE BAND. AS THE BAND CLEARS TUESDAY MORNING, CEILINGS WILL
RISE TO VFR, AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME RADIATIVE LOW STRATUS FORMATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT AT AND AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY RATHER LOW.
VICINITY OF SFO... RAINY CONDITIONS WITH LOW-END VFR-MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE RAIN BAND
MOVING AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE
RAIN BAND, CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH... SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS... RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS WITH LOW-END VFR CEILINGS. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY MORNING AT SNS, WITH THE
WINDS TURNING LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS CEILINGS
LIFT.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 950 PM PST MON JAN 5 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST IS BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
WHILE A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZE GENERATES ROUGH WIND
WAVES. THIS SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE WINDS COINCIDE WITH A VERY HIGH NW SWELL, BUILDING
VERY ROUGH COMBINED SEAS THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PT
PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...DIALH
MARINE...FLYNN
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