672
FXUS66 KMTR 061133
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
333 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
- COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
RESPONSIBLE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SLINKS SOUTH. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN DRIVING AS RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUCH AS WET ROADWAYS, PONDING
OF WATER, AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN AREAS
AS WELL AS FLASHY CREEKS/STREAMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THE MAIN
PROBLEM AREA IS IN THE NORTH BAY IN SONOMA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF MARK WEST CREEK NEAR MIRABEL HEIGHTS.
IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS, REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE SLOW EXIT OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A TROUGHY
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM DOOR OPEN AND
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO SKIRT THE REGION THEN. FORTUNATELY FROM A
HYDROLOGIC STANDPOINT, THIS WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
WITH GLOOMY CONDITIONS AND DRIZZLE A MORE LIKELY RESULT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, RESULTING IN WHAT I LIKE TO CALL A HIGH AND DRY PATTERN. CALM
AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOST
OF THE INTERIOR WITHIN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP RAISE THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. IT WILL STILL BE COLD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT WON'T BE AS COLD OR ENCOMPASSING AS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 322 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
SHOWERS ARE STUBBORNLY PERSISTING THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH RAIN
RATES ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT BRING THE VISIBILITY BELOW VFR
THRESHOLDS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES TOWARDS THE CHANNEL ISLANDS WHERE IT WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE 2ND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE SKIES CLEAR ON
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY GENTLE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WEAKENS.
VICINITY OF SFO...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, BUT ON A
DECREASING TREND. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ALL DAY, AND FINALLY
FLIP BACK TO NW WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW SUN BREAKS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER HERE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING BEFORE CLEARING UP THIS AFTERNOON. THE VFR
CEILINGS WILL VERY LIKELY STICK AROUND AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS
AT MRY WILL BE GENTLE ALL DAY, MAKING THE DIRECTION TRICKY. THE
TYPICAL WEAKLY FORCED REGIME OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
WIND SHIFTS IS HARD TO PIN DOWN.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO A STRONG BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COINCIDE
WITH A VERY HIGH NW SWELL, BUILDING VERY ROUGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...FLYNN
MARINE...FLYNN
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