963
FXUS66 KMTR 061840
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1040 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
- LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING
WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
- COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE
RESPONSIBLE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SLINKS SOUTH. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE
USED WHEN DRIVING AS RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUCH AS WET ROADWAYS, PONDING
OF WATER, AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING, POOR DRAINAGE, AND URBAN AREAS
AS WELL AS FLASHY CREEKS/STREAMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THE MAIN
PROBLEM AREA IS IN THE NORTH BAY IN SONOMA COUNTY, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM OF MARK WEST CREEK NEAR MIRABEL HEIGHTS.
IF YOU ENCOUNTER FLOODED ROADWAYS, REMEMBER: TURN AROUND, DON'T
DROWN!
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1207 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
THE SLOW EXIT OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL KEEP THE REGION IN A TROUGHY
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM DOOR OPEN AND
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT TO SKIRT THE REGION THEN. FORTUNATELY FROM A
HYDROLOGIC STANDPOINT, THIS WILL BRING LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION
WITH GLOOMY CONDITIONS AND DRIZZLE A MORE LIKELY RESULT. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE
BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN, RESULTING IN WHAT I LIKE TO CALL A HIGH AND DRY PATTERN. CALM
AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL YIELD COLD OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WITH MOST
OF THE INTERIOR WITHIN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT
BASIN AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL HELP RAISE THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING. IT WILL STILL BE COLD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS OF THE
WEEKEND, BUT IT WON'T BE AS COLD OR ENCOMPASSING AS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OFF OUR COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH BAY AND
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BAY AREA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW
STABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT CAN INFLUENCE THE
NORTH BAY/BAY AREA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF A SURFACE FRONT LATE IN
OR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD INFLUENCING POTENTIAL CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND WIND SHIFTS CONTINUING TO BE REFINED IN THE NEXT
UPDATE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OFFSHORE, SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY BECOMING A STRONG BREEZE NY THE
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH ROUGH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HIGH NORTHWEST SWELL BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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