473
FXUS66 KMTR 062233
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
233 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
- FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SET IN LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND; OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
- OTHERWISE DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME ISOLATED RETURNS OVER THE WATERS AND
COASTAL RANGES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW CU FIELD PRESENT OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL IN
ALL SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL AND ANY DEEPER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY ALONG THE RUSSIAN RIVER WATERSHED AND THE MARK WEST CREEK
WEST OF SANTA ROSA. FLOODING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG MARK WEST WHERE A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AND MOSTLY DRY
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO STARTS OUR EXTENDED ESCAPADE
WITH FAIR WEATHER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EPAC AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM CANADA. THIS ESSENTIALLY PROMOTES AN
INSIDE SLIDER SETUP WHERE WE'LL HAVE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW, LEADING
TO A DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE, FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW IN THE 30S. INLAND VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS
SANTA ROSA, SAN JOSE, SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY, THE SAN
LORENZO VALLEY, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY ALL HAVE ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 32 DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TEMPS REACHING THE MID-30S IN THESE AREAS WITH
LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE EVEN COLDER WITH MID-TO-UPPER 20S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SALINAS VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS. BEYOND FRIDAY
MORNING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OFF OUR COASTLINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH BAY AND
LESSER CHANCES FOR THE BAY AREA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO JUST HOW
STABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT CAN INFLUENCE THE
NORTH BAY/BAY AREA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL INFLUENCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS AND
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXACT TIMING OF A SURFACE FRONT LATE IN
OR JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD INFLUENCING POTENTIAL CLOUD
HEIGHTS AND WIND SHIFTS CONTINUING TO BE REFINED IN THE NEXT
UPDATE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 AM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST OFFSHORE, SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY BECOMING A STRONG BREEZE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH ROUGH
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HIGH NORTHWEST SWELL BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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