712
FXUS66 KMTR 062344
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
344 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
- FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE WATERS
AND ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
- COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SET IN LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND; OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S
- OTHERWISE DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HAZARDOUS
BEACH CONDITIONS FOR PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME ISOLATED RETURNS OVER THE WATERS AND
COASTAL RANGES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT IN THE RELATIVELY
SHALLOW CU FIELD PRESENT OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL IN
ALL SHOULD REMAIN UNDER CONTROL AND ANY DEEPER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SONOMA
COUNTY ALONG THE RUSSIAN RIVER WATERSHED AND THE MARK WEST CREEK
WEST OF SANTA ROSA. FLOODING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG MARK WEST WHERE A FLOOD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM. CLOUDS CLEARING OUT AND MOSTLY DRY
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO STARTS OUR EXTENDED ESCAPADE
WITH FAIR WEATHER.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1251 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM IS COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EPAC AS A DEEP UPPER LOW SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM CANADA. THIS ESSENTIALLY PROMOTES AN
INSIDE SLIDER SETUP WHERE WE'LL HAVE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW, LEADING
TO A DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL AND CHILLY OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE, FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW IN THE 30S. INLAND VALLEY AREAS SUCH AS
SANTA ROSA, SAN JOSE, SOUTHERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY, THE SAN
LORENZO VALLEY, AND THE SALINAS VALLEY ALL HAVE ABOUT A 50%
CHANCE OF REACHING 32 DEGREES FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TEMPS REACHING THE MID-30S IN THESE AREAS WITH
LOWER 40S ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST. SOME INLAND LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE EVEN COLDER WITH MID-TO-UPPER 20S FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE SALINAS VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHERN MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS. BEYOND FRIDAY
MORNING, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 344 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW
PATCHES OF FOG /LIFR-IFR/ MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KNOTS.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR. ONSHORE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS SHIFTING TO ONSHORE NEAR 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2026
A COOLER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATER WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY BECOMING
A STRONG BREEZE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING NORTHERLY SWELL
WILL COINCIDE WITH ROUGH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AND HIGH
NORTHWEST SWELL BY THURSDAY.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM WEDNESDAY TO 3 PM PST THURSDAY
FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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