837
FXUS66 KMTR 072048
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1248 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT; COLD
NIGHTS AHEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PREVAILING AFTER TOMORROW
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO BE ANYTHING
NOTABLE. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HERE AND THERE, IF THAT. MOST
OF US WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN KNOW IT RAINED OVERNIGHT IF IT WEREN'T
FOR THE DAMP SURFACES IN THE MORNING, BUT WE'RE ALREADY USED TO
THAT, RIGHT? THIS ALSO BRINGS IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT, BUT
ACTUALLY ISN'T THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR COLD TEMPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
BUNDLE UP, BAY AREA! COLD NIGHTS ARE ON THE HORIZON LATE WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL BECOME LIKE AN INSIDE SLIDER
SETUP, PROMOTING A WEAK OFFSHORE WIND. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUR
AIRMASS OUT WHICH RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES AND ULTIMATELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH IT BEING THE DEAD OF WINTER, NIGHTS
ARE LONG. SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT END UP WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
(MOST) WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RADIATE OUT HEAT FROM THE
SUNLIGHT HOURS. THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AM/SATURDAY
AM, WHERE MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE USUALLY LIKE
TO USE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION, BUT IN THIS CASE THERE MAY BE
SOME FORECASTS THAT ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE ON THE LOW END. THAT IS
TO SAY, WE THINK THAT THE LOW EXTREMES ARE OVER-REPRESENTED AMONG
FORECAST MODEL ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER, THIS TENDS TO BE A RATHER
SENSITIVE FORECAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER OFFSHORE
WIND OR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INITIAL ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE OF
THIS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE WE THINK THE LOW EXTREME
FORECASTS ARE OVER-REPRESENTED, THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THEY
AREN'T POSSIBLE. IT'S JUST A SMALLER LIKELIHOOD. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO PUTS MUCH OF THE SOUTH BAY, NORTH BAY VALLEYS, AND PAJARO
VALLEY NEAR THE FREEZING MARK (32-34F) FRIDAY MORNING. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO, THE ONE I PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THAT I FELT WAS
OVER- REPRESENTED, WOULD BE SOMETHING MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S
(CLOSER TO 30F THAN 25F) FOR THE SOUTH BAY AND PAJARO/HOLLISTER
VALLEY. IS THIS POSSIBLE? YES, BUT IT WOULD BE REALLY HARD TO DO.
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FRIDAY MORNING, SO WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT A RECORD COLD
AIRMASS IN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS BY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.
AFTER SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPS START TO WARM SLIGHTLY BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 943 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (PRIMARILY SOUTH BAY AND
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS) FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES FROM THE W/NW.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SETTLING IN THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID-THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 943 AM PST WED JAN 7 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLE IN BEHIND A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS TODAY,
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALONG
WITH THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE A BUILDING MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL ON THURSDAY, COMBINING O CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ON THE WATER THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS
EASING AND WAVE ENERGY DECREASING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ502-506-508-510-512>518-528>530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY-PIGEON
PT TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT
REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM
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