707
FXUS66 KMTR 080455
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
855 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT; COLD
NIGHTS AHEAD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
- COLDEST TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER PREVAILING AFTER TOMORROW
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY DOWN SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, AMOUNTS AREN'T ANTICIPATED TO BE ANYTHING
NOTABLE. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH HERE AND THERE, IF THAT. MOST
OF US WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN KNOW IT RAINED OVERNIGHT IF IT WEREN'T
FOR THE DAMP SURFACES IN THE MORNING, BUT WE'RE ALREADY USED TO
THAT, RIGHT? THIS ALSO BRINGS IN SOME COLDER AIR ALOFT, BUT
ACTUALLY ISN'T THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR COLD TEMPS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1206 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
BUNDLE UP, BAY AREA! COLD NIGHTS ARE ON THE HORIZON LATE WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM IS
ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL BECOME LIKE AN INSIDE SLIDER
SETUP, PROMOTING A WEAK OFFSHORE WIND. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUR
AIRMASS OUT WHICH RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES AND ULTIMATELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. WITH IT BEING THE DEAD OF WINTER, NIGHTS
ARE LONG. SO ANY LOCATIONS THAT END UP WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
(MOST) WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO RADIATE OUT HEAT FROM THE
SUNLIGHT HOURS. THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY AM/SATURDAY
AM, WHERE MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE USUALLY LIKE
TO USE PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION, BUT IN THIS CASE THERE MAY BE
SOME FORECASTS THAT ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE ON THE LOW END. THAT IS
TO SAY, WE THINK THAT THE LOW EXTREMES ARE OVER-REPRESENTED AMONG
FORECAST MODEL ENSEMBLES. HOWEVER, THIS TENDS TO BE A RATHER
SENSITIVE FORECAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER OFFSHORE
WIND OR MORE CLOUD COVER THAN INITIAL ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE OF
THIS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE WE THINK THE LOW EXTREME
FORECASTS ARE OVER-REPRESENTED, THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THEY
AREN'T POSSIBLE. IT'S JUST A SMALLER LIKELIHOOD. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO PUTS MUCH OF THE SOUTH BAY, NORTH BAY VALLEYS, AND PAJARO
VALLEY NEAR THE FREEZING MARK (32-34F) FRIDAY MORNING. THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO, THE ONE I PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THAT I FELT WAS
OVER- REPRESENTED, WOULD BE SOMETHING MORE LIKE THE UPPER 20S
(CLOSER TO 30F THAN 25F) FOR THE SOUTH BAY AND PAJARO/HOLLISTER
VALLEY. IS THIS POSSIBLE? YES, BUT IT WOULD BE REALLY HARD TO DO.
850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR FRIDAY MORNING, SO WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT A RECORD COLD
AIRMASS IN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS BY STRETCH OF THE IMAGINATION.
AFTER SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPS START TO WARM SLIGHTLY BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, BEFORE RETURNING TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR-MVFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT. DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES MAINLY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT, PEAKING MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH A
BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL WITH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS OVER OUR WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 855 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM
FRIDAY PST. EXPECT LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 22 FEET, STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES FROM COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO COASTAL
MONTEREY COUNTY, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE
WHERE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT. EXPECT AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AND BEACH
EROSION. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL INJURY AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. EXPECT
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS, SNEAKER
WAVES, AND BREAKING WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR
CAZ006-505-509-530.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR CAZ502-506-508-510-512>518-528>530.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 AM PST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THURSDAY FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THURSDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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