864
FXUS66 KMTR 081002
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
202 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
- HIGH AND DRY PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND COLD OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ARE QUICKLY SWEEPING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WRAPPED UP BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WASTE NO TIME BUILDING IN THE COLD
FRONT'S WAKE, INITIALLY INTO THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER BEFORE
ULTIMATELY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL FACILITATE OFFSHORE
FLOW. CALM, CLEAR, AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LONG NIGHTS IS A RECIPE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM FRIDAY. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. IN THESE LOCATIONS, SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
MOST OF THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST ARE UNDER A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY DURING THE SAME TIME. IN THESE LOCATIONS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS A
REMINDER, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND EXTREME
COLD WARNING HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ADOPTED TO ADDRESS COLD IMPACTS TO
HUMANS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE PERIOD - THE CENTRAL COAST IS FORECAST
TO BE COLDEST FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE BAY AREA IS FORECAST TO BE
COLDEST SATURDAY MORNING. IT'S IMPORTANT TO PUT ALL OF THIS IN
CONTEXT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE USED AS A PROXY FOR THE
AIR MASS. AT 12Z FRIDAY, THE 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO
BE 8 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN OF 6.8 DEGREES
CELSIUS FOR THE DATE AND TIME. THIS TELLS ME THAT WE ARE NOT DEALING
WITH A COLD AIR MASS. A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ASKING IF ANY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN AND THE ANSWER IS NO AS WE SIMPLY DO
NOT HAVE THE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT IT AND WE HAVE SOME VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. FOR EXAMPLE, SJC'S DAILY RECORD LOWEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET ALL THE WAY BACK IN
1937 - THEY HAVEN'T GOTTEN BELOW 30 DEGREES SINCE DECEMBER 2013.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT IT'S GOING TO BE COLD, BUT NOT RECORD
BREAKING COLD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING WEST OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND OF ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WARM UP SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THAT TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR-MVFR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT. DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR. WEST WIND GUSTY TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES MAINLY
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR-MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN
COOLER AIR AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 840 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT, PEAKING MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. THE INCREASING WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH A
BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL WITH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS OVER OUR WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS AND WAVE ENERGY WILL THEN GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 855 PM PST WED JAN 7 2026
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM
FRIDAY PST. EXPECT LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 22 FEET, STRONG RIP
CURRENTS AND SNEAKER WAVES FROM COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO COASTAL
MONTEREY COUNTY, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE
WHERE A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT. EXPECT AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES, STRONG RIP CURRENTS, AND BEACH
EROSION. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL INJURY AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. EXPECT
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS, SNEAKER
WAVES, AND BREAKING WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE SHORELINE.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ502-
506-510-512-513-515-528>530.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ514-
516>518.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM-PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PIGEON PT
TO PT PINOS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...CANEPA
MARINE...CANEPA
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