647
FXUS66 KMTR 081152
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
352 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
- HIGH AND DRY PATTERN WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND COLD OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AT ALL PACIFIC COAST BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
SOME RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ARE QUICKLY SWEEPING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATION HAS BEEN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WRAPPED UP BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 159 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WASTE NO TIME BUILDING IN THE COLD
FRONT'S WAKE, INITIALLY INTO THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER BEFORE
ULTIMATELY INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL FACILITATE OFFSHORE
FLOW. CALM, CLEAR, AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LONG NIGHTS IS A RECIPE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED
FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM FRIDAY. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SANTA CLARA HILLS AND
INTERIOR MONTEREY AND SAN BENITO COUNTIES. IN THESE LOCATIONS, SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S CAN BE EXPECTED.
MOST OF THE REST OF THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST ARE UNDER A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY DURING THE SAME TIME. IN THESE LOCATIONS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. AS A
REMINDER, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, AND EXTREME
COLD WARNING HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ADOPTED TO ADDRESS COLD IMPACTS TO
HUMANS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
THE COLDEST MORNINGS OF THE PERIOD - THE CENTRAL COAST IS FORECAST
TO BE COLDEST FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE BAY AREA IS FORECAST TO BE
COLDEST SATURDAY MORNING. IT'S IMPORTANT TO PUT ALL OF THIS IN
CONTEXT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE USED AS A PROXY FOR THE
AIR MASS. AT 12Z FRIDAY, THE 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST TO
BE 8 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH IS ABOVE THE DAILY MEAN OF 6.8 DEGREES
CELSIUS FOR THE DATE AND TIME. THIS TELLS ME THAT WE ARE NOT DEALING
WITH A COLD AIR MASS. A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ASKING IF ANY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BROKEN AND THE ANSWER IS NO AS WE SIMPLY DO
NOT HAVE THE AIR MASS TO SUPPORT IT AND WE HAVE SOME VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. FOR EXAMPLE, SJC'S DAILY RECORD LOWEST
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD IS 22 DEGREES SET ALL THE WAY BACK IN
1937 - THEY HAVEN'T GOTTEN BELOW 30 DEGREES SINCE DECEMBER 2013.
SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT IT'S GOING TO BE COLD, BUT NOT RECORD
BREAKING COLD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL MEANDER OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETROGRADING WEST OUT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND OF ABOUT 20 DEGREES IN
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY, SLOWLY BEGINNING TO WARM UP SUNDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING THAT TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 336 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, WITH TEMPORARY LOWER CIGS, CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION N TO S. THANKFULLY, COVERAGE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DECREASING AND WILL DO SO THROUGH SUNRISE.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO EASE OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL HOLDING
ONTO SOME GUSTS THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL. THERE AFTER, A BUILDING
DRIER AIRMASS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO VFR.
VICINITY OF SFO...A FEW-SCT CIGS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AOA
2500-3000 FEET. VFR WITH SKC THIS AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SAME AS SFO
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VCSH THROUGH 15Z. VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BUILDING NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE
THURSDAY LEADING TO A ROUGH SEA STATE WITH SHOALING NEAR THE
COAST, HARBOR ENTRANCES, AND BARS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
BEACHES
ISSUED AT 350 AM PST THU JAN 8 2026
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM FRIDAY PST.
EXPECT LARGE BREAKING WAVES UP TO 22 FEET, STRONG RIP CURRENTS
AND SNEAKER WAVES FROM COASTAL SONOMA COUNTY TO COASTAL MONTEREY
COUNTY, EXCLUDING THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE WHERE A
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT. LARGE BREAKING WAVES
CAN OVERPOWER SWIMMERS RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT PHYSICAL INJURY
AND INCREASE THE RISK OF DROWNING.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE NORTHERN MONTEREY BAY SHORELINE. EXPECT HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS, SNEAKER WAVES, AND BREAKING
WAVES UP TO 15 FEET. THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ALONG THE SHORELINE.
STAY OFF OF JETTIES, PIERS, ROCKS, AND OTHER WATERSIDE
INFRASTRUCTURE. REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER TO AVOID HAZARDOUS SURF
AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN. MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER, SURF
AND TIDE FORECASTS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MTR.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ006-505-509-530.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ502-
506-510-512-513-515-528>530.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ514-
516>518.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CAZ529.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MRY BAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 0-10 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM-PT PINOS TO PT
PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM-PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PST FRIDAY FOR PIGEON PT TO PT
PINOS 10-60 NM-PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...SARMENT
LONG TERM....SARMENT
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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