658
FXUS66 KMTR 232011
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
1211 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1209 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
- GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY AND
EAST BAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
- MORNING FOG ACROSS SOME BAY AREA VALLEYS
- POTENTIAL WEAK STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1209 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
LOW CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RETURN OF A ~1500 FT MARINE LAYER
RETURNED OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, TULE FOG FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY AS
PUSHED WESTWARD INTO THE EAST BAY VALLEYS. BY MID AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EXPECT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COAST WHERE THE MARINE LAYER PERSISTS.
EXPECTING OFFSHORE WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST BAY VALLEYS TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED GUST MAY EXCEED 50 MPH IN SOME OF THE PEAKS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL DRY THINGS OUT CONSIDERABLY IN THESE AREAS WHICH
MAY ALSO MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO BE STRONG IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 20% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SATURDAY, WE ARE EXPECTING OFFSHORE WINDS TO PERSIST IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WORK TO COMPRESS THE MARINE LAYER
AND ESSENTIALLY COMPLETELY MIXING IT OUT. THUS, A SLIGHT WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1209 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
OFFSHORE WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
YET WILL STILL BE MODERATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THEREFORE, LOW
CLOUDS COVER AND/OR FOG WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, HIGH
CLOUDS WILL WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST BY THAT TIME.
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER: "THE RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH A ZONAL JETSTREAM PATTERN TAKING ITS PLACE, AND
OFFERING MORE ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER THE JETSTREAM LOOKS TO SNAP BACK
TO A QUICK RIDGE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THIS MEANS TEMPERATURES
WILL AND SOME BOUNCES UP AND DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, AND LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WILL BE SPOTTY.
DESPITE THE QUICK RIDGE DEVELOPMENT, HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. THE TROUGH
FORMATION IS WELL-ARGEED UPON BETWEEN THE LONGER TERM MODELS, BUT
THE TRAJECTORY IS A MATTER OF DEBATE. MORE MODELS POINT TO A COLD
FRONT, AND MAYBE A WEAK LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINS BY THE MID WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SEEM KEEN ON THIS TROUGH GETTING PUSHED
UP AGAINST THE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT, AND PLACING ALL THE MOISTURE WELL
TO THE NORTH. THE GFS OUTPUT LOOKS A BIT LESS FIRM THAN OTHER MODELS
AND THE NATIONAL BLEND, BUT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS THE
LONGER TERM MODELS UPDATE. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES
RAIN CHANCES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG THE INITIAL
FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES POSSIBLE BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD."
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ALMOST ALL OF THE BAY AREA AND
CENTRAL COAST SOCKED IN WITH FOG AND STRATUS, UNLESS YOUR OVER 3000
OR 4000FT ELEVATION. THE QUESTION FOR TODAY BECOMES, WILL WE BE ABLE
TO MIX OUT? MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN THE GREATEST WITH MANY
SHOWING CLEARING HAPPENING AROUND 18Z. MOS GUIDANCE MIGHT BE THE
MOST PESSIMISTIC, WITH SOME SITES POTENTIALLY BEING LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE DAY. OPTED TO TREND MORE PESSIMISTIC GIVEN THE SPREAD OF
THIS AND THE LACK OF CLEARING. SHOULD THIS TULE FOG AND STRATUS
STICK AROUND, EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF WE'RE ABLE TO MIX OUT AND GET WINDS A LITTLE BREEZIER, WE
MAY GET SOME VFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS.
TONIGHT, THE FORECAST IS DIFFICULT ONCE AGAIN. OPTED TO GO
PESSIMISTIC FOR MOST TAF SITES AS WELL GIVEN MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...MODERATE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE SFO FORECAST.
OPTED TO TREND WITH CIGS CLEARING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
STAYING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN MOST GUIDANCE HAS LOW CLOUDS
FLIRTING AROUND SFO, OPTED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF FEW015 AND SCT010
IN THE FORECAST. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS 20-40% CHANCE OF BKN MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT, WITH CIGS ERODING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE OVERALL FORECAST GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD DECK
OVER THE REGION.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE BEING OBSERVED THIS
MORNING AND THESE SHOULD REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE
WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 841 AM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH NEAR
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN THE NORTHWEST WATERS. ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-12 FEET
ACROSS EXPOSED WATERS TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND WITH A GENTLE BREEZE AND MODERATE SEAS.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PT ARENA TO PT
REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...RGASS
LONG TERM....RGASS/MURDOCK
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...KR
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