824
FXUS66 KMTR 241128
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
328 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 326 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
- GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH BAY AND
EAST BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
- MORNING FOG ACROSS SOME BAY AREA VALLEYS, THAT CLEARS IN THE
MID MORNING
- POTENTIAL WEAK STORM SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 326 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WINDS ALONG THE HIGHER PEAKS IN THE NORTH BAY BECAME STRONG EARLY ON
INTO THE NIGHT AND THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FURTHER INTO THE MORNING. MEANWHILE, WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
JUST ABOUT STILL, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FORMATION OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
THE INCREASED OFFSHORE FLOW ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE MORNING, WITH SOME OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE BEING CHIPPED AWAY AS
THE COLUMN OF AIR MIXES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICKER CLEARING OF SKIES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.
SHORT-TERM HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A QUICK CLEARING OF MOST OF
THE AREA BY THE MID MORNING AS THE DRY FLOW CONTINUES TO BUILD IN.
THE CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES OR SO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
(WIDESPREAD LOWER 60S). WINDS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALOFT
WILL STAY ON THE STRONGER SIDE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT WIND TO
MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS POOR.
WINDS LOOK TO REDUCE INTO THE NIGHT, BUT THE DRY AIR REMAINS,
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES, BUT COOLER LOW TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY NIGHT
OFFERS LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S ALONG THE COAST, BUT UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S FOR THE MORE INLAND AREAS. THE MORE INTERIOR AREAS COULD
SEE LOWS INTO THE MID 30S, AND A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS IN THE LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 326 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
THE OFFSHORE FLOW TURNS BACK TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW FURTHER INTO
SUNDAY, BUT ANOTHER RIDGE FORMS IN THE JET STREAM INTO LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE SOME LIGHT REDUCTIONS AND
INCREASES THROUGH THIS QUICK CHANGE, BUT NOTHING EXTREME. THIS WILL
ALSO MAKE MARINE LAYER, LOW CLOUD, AND FOG FORECASTING INTERESTING
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS THE PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES. ANOTHER
ELEMENT TO CONSIDER WILL BE THE RETURN OF HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WORK WEEK, WHICH COULD COMPLICATE OVERNIGHT COOLING AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. FUN FOR OUR AVIATION FORECASTERS!
THE MID WEEK FORECAST STILL IS A MATTER OF THE GFS VS EVERY OTHER
MODEL. THE GFS HAS THE RIDGE STRENGTHEN AND PLACES THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH, CONTINUING OUR DRY
TREND. OTHER MODELS JUST HAVE THE RIDGE PUSH EAST AS THE FRONT AND
LOW MOVE INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE GFS OUTPUT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL MID-
WINTER SET UP, SO THERE IS A LOT OF DOUBT THERE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS ON THE ECMWF'S PATTERN, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LIGHT
RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH MID THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2026
FAIRLY EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
THIS EVENING. STARTING TO SEE SOME VISIBILITY FLUCTUATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH BAY AND EAST BAY. CIGS AND VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
OVERNIGHT WITH FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE VALLEYS. PROVIDING
UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST IS THE ARRIVAL OF MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS SHOULD BRING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION AND SUBSEQUENTLY CAUSE CLOUD COVER TO
BE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP DROP OFF IN
THE AREAL EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER STARTING 12-13Z WHICH IS AROUND WHEN
WINDS PICK UP. WENT WITH A MIXTURE OF EARLIER CLEARING TIMES (CLOSER
TO 15-16Z) AND LATE MORNING CLEARING TIMES (17-18Z). WINDS
STRENGTHEN TO BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY BEFORE EASING
OVERNIGHT.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY MVFR AT SFO WITH LOW TO MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL PERSIST PAST 10Z. FOR NOW KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AS A TEMPO AS ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL CLEAR BY
10/11Z. WINDS REMAIN VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. WINDS STRENGTHEN TO
AROUND 8-10 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. NOT SEEING ANY INDICATORS OF FOG DEVELOPING AND OR
SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN VISIBILITY AT MRY OR SNS TONIGHT SO HAVE PULLED
UP FORECAST VISIBILITIES FOR SNS. CEILINGS LOOK TO IMPROVE AS EARLY
AS 15/16Z. CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAT SNS WILL CLEAR BY 16Z
WHILE MRY CLEARS CLOSER TO 17Z. WINDS REMAIN NW TO N THROUGHOUT THE
DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT. WAVE
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. IMPROVING WIND AND SEA
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO MID NEXT WEEK.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MURDOCK
LONG TERM....MURDOCK
AVIATION...KENNEDY
MARINE...CANEPA
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