455
FXUS66 KMTR 251057
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
257 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 252 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
- OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN TODAY; LIGHT WINDS THEN PREVAIL INTO MID-WEEK
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AM ALONG
COASTAL RANGES AND THE NORTH BAY. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.1"
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN NEXT WEEKEND IN THE NORTH BAY WITH
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.1"
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 252 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
TULE FOG IN THE VICINITY OF THE EAST BAY AND SOUTHERN NAPA COUNTY IS
STRUGGLING TO ADVANCE FARTHER WEST WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN
LOWER LYING AREAS REMAIN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES AS OF 3AM PST. HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF
THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS JUST OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUING
DRIFTING OVER OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC
RIDGING PATTERN ACROSS THE WEST WILL PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WE'LL SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
INTERRUPT THE RIDGING AT OUR LATITUDE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR
AMBIENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN SATURDAY FOR THE NORTH BAY, BAY AREA AND
EAST BAY WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND THE WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW GETTING NEUTRALIZED. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WILL ALSO TICK A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR MOST OF
OUR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 252 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
MODEST INCREASES IN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS REINVIGORATED THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE REINCARNATED RIDGING ON TUESDAY IS PROGRESSIVE. A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IN THE WAKE OF THE RIDGING
APPEARS TO LIFT NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST, WITH A TREND
TOWARD LESS RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN CONUS, BUT THE NET RESULT FOR THE BAY AREA AND CENTRAL COAST
IS RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
AMOUNTS OF BENEFICIAL RAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 852 PM PST SAT JAN 24 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME STRATUS OFF OF BODEGA BAY
AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODERATE
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE RESULTING WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE HELP OF RECORD
LOW PWAT AND INTERIOR DEW POINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF TULE FOG CAN BE ADVECTED IN FROM THE CENTRAL
VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH HOW BAD IT LOOKS
HEALTH-WISE ON SATELLITE.
VICINITY OF SFO...CURRENTLY VFR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...CURRENTLY VFR WITH DRAINAGE FLOW AT BOTH
TERMINALS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
DRAINAGE WINDS RETURNING TOMORROW EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE MID AFTERNOON INCREASE TO
BECOME MORE MODERATE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO BECOME
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...MURDOCK
MARINE...MURDOCK
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