519
FXUS66 KMTR 252102
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
102 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
- WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL; REMAIN LIGHT INTO MID-WEEK
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1" AND FOCUSED IN THE
NORTH BAY.
- DRY TO END THE REST OF THE WEEK; NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER THE
1ST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ANOTHER CLOUD-FILLED, MIXED-SKY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVANCES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF MENDOCINO/HUMBOLDT COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR IS
PICKING UP ON SOME ECHOS ALOFT, BUT THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT TO THE GROUND AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY THE MASSIVE BLOCK OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 23 KFT. ONE THING THIS MIGHT
ACTUALLY BRING US THAT YOU'LL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS A
WONDERFUL SUNSET THIS EVENING, IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA WITHOUT LOW
CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A COUPLE MORE CHILLY NIGHTS AHEAD BEFORE ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROMOTES MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS.
THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS THE ONLY CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN WITHIN THE 7 DAY FORECAST, AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
LOWER WITH EACH ISSUANCE. BY LATE TUESDAY, A 120 KT JET STREAK
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES THE DRIVING FORCE TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY THWARTS ANY MEANINGFUL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES ARE THE ONLY AREAS THAT WOULD GET ANYTHING
WORTH MENTIONING (0.05-0.10"), AND ELSEWHERE MAY ONLY SEE AS MUCH
AS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS EXHIBITS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL THE 1ST OF FEBRUARY
WHERE A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY SWING THROUGH THE EPAC, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN N-S PLACEMENT. AS SUCH, THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EARLY FEB RAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH MOST
SITES REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS. KSTS ENDED UP TANKING SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH QUARTER MILE OR LESS FOG AT TIMES AND LIFR CEILINGS.
SOME LOW CLOUDS MADE AN APPEARANCE AT KOAK AND KLVK AS WELL, BUT
THESE CONDITIONS WERE SHORT LIVED. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OPTED TO INCLUDE REDUCED
VISIBILITY TO KSTS TOMORROW MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. BREEZE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FLOWING THROUGH THE SALINAS
VALLEY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT EXPECTED FOR KSNS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR A PORTION OF THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
LIGHT WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY IN THE MID AFTERNOON INCREASE TO
BECOME MORE MODERATE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH AND
BECOME NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS SEAS BUILD TO BECOME
ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...MURDOCK
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