606
FXUS66 KMTR 252356
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
356 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
- WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL; REMAIN LIGHT INTO MID-WEEK
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.1" AND FOCUSED IN THE
NORTH BAY.
- DRY TO END THE REST OF THE WEEK; NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER THE
1ST, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ANOTHER CLOUD-FILLED, MIXED-SKY DAY AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVANCES AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF MENDOCINO/HUMBOLDT COUNTY. CURRENT RADAR IS
PICKING UP ON SOME ECHOS ALOFT, BUT THERE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT TO THE GROUND AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY THE MASSIVE BLOCK OF DRY AIR
IN THE MID-LEVELS UP TO ABOUT 23 KFT. ONE THING THIS MIGHT
ACTUALLY BRING US THAT YOU'LL WANT TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS A
WONDERFUL SUNSET THIS EVENING, IF YOU'RE IN AN AREA WITHOUT LOW
CLOUDS.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 1210 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
A COUPLE MORE CHILLY NIGHTS AHEAD BEFORE ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROMOTES MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL BRING
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS.
THIS SHORTWAVE BRINGS THE ONLY CONFIDENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN WITHIN THE 7 DAY FORECAST, AND AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
LOWER WITH EACH ISSUANCE. BY LATE TUESDAY, A 120 KT JET STREAK
DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS BECOMES THE DRIVING FORCE TO LIFT
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTH. THIS LIKELY THWARTS ANY MEANINGFUL
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
THE NORTH BAY COUNTIES ARE THE ONLY AREAS THAT WOULD GET ANYTHING
WORTH MENTIONING (0.05-0.10"), AND ELSEWHERE MAY ONLY SEE AS MUCH
AS A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS EXHIBITS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL THE 1ST OF FEBRUARY
WHERE A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY SWING THROUGH THE EPAC, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN N-S PLACEMENT. AS SUCH, THERE IS NOT MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN EARLY FEB RAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 341 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
SOLID CLOUD DECK OVERHEAD, BUT THANKFULLY ABOVE 12K FEET.
POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR TONIGHT WILL BE SOME FOG FOR KSTS, KAPC,
KVLK. HIGHEST CONF WILL BE FOR KSTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS.
VICINITY OF SFO...LIGHT OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP OFFSHORE PREVAILING
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. 20-30% CHC FOR BRIEF ONSHORE PUSH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SOME HAZE COULD CAUSE SLANTWISE VIS ISSUES
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR
MARINE
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM PST SUN JAN 25 2026
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE BREEZES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NORTH OF POINT REYES. WINDS
DIMINISH AND BECOME NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS SEAS
BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...MM
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