180
FXUS66 KMTR 262159
AFDMTR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
159 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
- CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
- MOIST, SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SLIGHT
RAIN CHANCES NORTH BAY AND SF. AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT B/W 0.01" AND
0.2".
- DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING AND REMAINING SO THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. MANY LOCATIONS RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGREES WARMER
THAN 24 HOURS AGO, LARGELY IN PART TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER
TODAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELTA. A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
ISSUED AT 136 PM PST MON JAN 26 2026
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY DO EXIST, BUT VERY LIMITED ON WHO
WILL ACTUALLY GET MEASURABLE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
AND LIFTING TOWARD THE NE, MOST RAIN WILL LIKELY ONLY FALL IN THE
NORTH BAY (0.05" TO 0.25"), WITH LIGHTER OR EVEN TRACE AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE SF PENINSULA AND IMMEDIATE SF BAY REGION. INTERIOR EAST
BAY, SOUTH BAY, AND AREAS SOUTH OF WATSONVILLE WILL LIKELY ONLY
SEE DRIZZLE AT BEST. THIS ALL COMES TO AN END BY THE MIDDLE OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT PROMOTING DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THE NEXT
MENTION OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS STILL HIGH AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND INCREASE ON
TUESDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH WIND DIRECTIONS BEING DETERMINED BY MOSTLY LOCALIZED EFFECTS.
ONLY EXPECTING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT STS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DO DEVELOP IN THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY
AND 4-6 SM HZ AT LVK.
VICINITY OF SFO...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER INTO THE
EVENING, BEFORE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP EARLY
TUESDAY.
SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO SFO.
MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO MODERATE AROUND SNS.
MARINE
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 930 AM PST MON JAN 26 2026
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WATERS WITH MORE
MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS NORTH OF POINT REYES. WINDS DIMINISH ON
WEDNESDAY AND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY THAT NIGHT. MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE WEDNESDAY AS SEAS
BUILD TO BECOME ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK PASSING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY FOR PT ARENA
TO PT REYES 0-10 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PST TUESDAY
FOR PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM.
SHORT TERM...BEHRINGER
LONG TERM....BEHRINGER
AVIATION...RGASS
MARINE...RGASS
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